Hawk » Packer Update

Blueprint For Fixing The Defense

Posted by Michael Rodney at 12:13 am 3 Responses »

Dec 282011

Hawk is having a very disappointing season

Since writing about blueprints seems to be in vogue these days, I’ve decided to write my first post in months on that very subject. But instead of providing a blueprint on how teams can beat the Packers (that would be sacrilegious), I’ll be providing a blueprint on what needs to be done to fix the defense.

1) Draft an impact outside linebacker – I’ve begged for general manager Ted Thompson to upgrade the position opposite Clay Matthews for two years (I still cringe every time Antwan Barnes gets another sack for the Chargers. TT could’ve acquired him for next to nothing on any number of occasions over the past 18 months). Coordinator Dom Capers got by in 2010 with a motley collection of right outside linebackers, but that was only because of Cullen Jenkins. The former Packer and current Eagle was one of the top handful of pass rushing defensive linemen in the league last season and he essentially took the place of a second outside linebacker in passing situations. With Jenkins gone and Mike Neal unable to take his place, the Packers have played with only one legitimate pass rusher all season. And no matter how special Matthews is, that’s simply not enough. So unless Thompson can find a defensive lineman like Jenkins between now and the start of training camp next summer (and those guys are almost as hard to find these days as a Wisconsinite who still loves Brett Favre), he must use one of his first two draft picks on a playmaking outside linebacker.

2) Replace Hawk at inside linebacker - After watching his defense play so well en route to a Super Bowl championship, it came as no surprise when the Packers decided to re-sign A.J. Hawk and send Nick Barnett packing. After all, not only was Hawk one of Thompson’s first draft picks after taking over as GM in Green Bay, but more importantly, the former Ohio State star was coming off his finest season since joining the team in 2006. Unfortunately, the decision has proven to be a mistake – a $36 million mistake. Hawk’s play has clearly regressed. He’s only 27, but he appears to have lost a half step – a half step he couldn’t afford to lose. Even worse, he seems content to arm tackle rather than take on running backs and tight ends. As for Barnett, he hasn’t been a world beater in Buffalo, but he’s having a better season than Hawk. And while I didn’t criticize Thompson then and I won’t criticize him now for choosing Hawk, he has to admit his mistake and rectify things in the offseason. A tougher and more athletic inside linebacker must be found to pair with Desmond Bishop in 2012, and if that player is not on the current 53-man roster (maybe rookie D.J. Smith), then it’s up to Thompson to go out and get him.

3) Upgrade at safety – Regardless of whether Nick Collins returns in 2012 (I’d be shocked if he ever plays again), the Packers must add a quality safety in the offseason. Charlie Peprah obviously can’t be a starter next season, and truth be told, he shouldn’t even be third on the depth chart when training camp opens. The former Alabama star has been forced to start 24 games since October 2010, and that’s about 20 games too many. Capers was able to hide Peprah’s glaring lack of athleticism in 2010, but that hasn’t been the case this season. The difference? A year ago, the pass rush was consistently strong and Collins was playing at his usual Pro Bowl level. This year, the pass rush has been anemic and Collins has been replaced by struggling second-year pro Morgan Burnett. That leaves Peprah as an easy target for opposing offensive coordinators, who must spend the work week salivating over the chance to isolate a tight end, or god forbid, a wide receiver, on the slow-footed journeyman. I don’t know if Collins’ potential replacement is currently on the roster (maybe Charles Woodson), but I do know it’s up to Thompson to make sure the defense won’t have to turn to Peprah for a third time in 2012.

4) Draft at least one defensive end – The Packers can’t count on Neal to be the player he was prior to suffering serious shoulder and knee injuries and Howard Green, C.J. Wilson and Jarius Wynn have all proven to be – at best – deep reserves. Thompson needs to overhaul this group. While Green has the size to play in a 3-4, he’ll be 33 in a couple of weeks. Wilson and Wynn are both under 300 pounds, and neither has the physical ability to overcome their lack of bulk. There are a number of reasons why the run defense has been so porous this season, but one of the biggest is not a having a capable third lineman to play alongside B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett. Johnny Jolly filled that role ideally in 2009 and Jenkins, while certainly no run stuffer, held his own a year ago. Thompson needs to find a player who can at least hold his own in 2012. Fortunately, those players are often available in the middle rounds of the draft.

5) Get veterans to play better – The final step in my plan to fix the defense isn’t up to Thompson, it’s up to the coaching staff and the players already on the roster. More specifically, Raji and cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Sam Shields simply have to play better in 2012. All three took a step back this season. Raji might’ve been the most disruptive interior defensive lineman in the league late last year and throughout the playoffs. Not only was he fairly stout at the point of attack, but he was making tackles for losses and getting consistent pressure on the quarterback. His relative lack of success as a pass rusher this season can probably be explained away by the loss of Jenkins and by having to play too many snaps. But his struggles against the run cannot be as easily excused. No player with his size, strength and athleticism should ever be pushed around as often as he’s been pushed around this season. As for Williams and Shields, neither is playing nearly as well as he did 10 months ago. The former deserves a lot of credit for playing through a painful shoulder injury, but he’s been healthy for the past month or so and he still hasn’t retuned to his previous form. The latter has steadily improved in coverage throughout the season, but his tackling has been pathetic. Capers fully expected these three players to be stars this season. Unfortunately, like the defense as a whole, they’ve come up short.

So there’s my five-step plan for fixing the defense (by the way, it also wouldn’t hurt to add another cornerback). Needless to say, I’m expecting Thompson to focus on defense in next April’s draft. The good news is that improving the defense in 2012 shouldn’t be a Herculean task. A few shrewd draft choices and the return to form of a few veterans is all it should take. The even better news is that the Packers, even with a defense that has more holes in it than a piece of Swiss cheese, are currently 14-1 and in great position to win their second consecutive Super Bowl. Hey, ain’t it a great time to be a fan?!

Pair seeks redemption in Atlanta

Posted by Michael Rodney at 12:29 am 9 Responses »

Jan 152011

Packers need a better effort from Colledge

The Packers need a better effort from two of their veterans

Linebacker A.J. Hawk and guard Daryn Colledge are enjoying arguably their finest seasons, but both five-year veterans will have something to prove on Saturday night. That’s because neither played well the last time Green Bay visited Atlanta – a major reason why the Packers left the Georgia Dome on the wrong end of a 20-17 score. For things to be different this time, Hawk must play a lot faster than he did six weeks ago and Colledge needs to keep his pads down and his intensity up.

Hawk has never played as fast as his 40 time, but he hasn’t been a liability in space this season – except for the first game against the Falcons. For whatever reason, the former Ohio State star looked at times like he was playing in slow motion. He allowed himself to be tied up far too frequently in the running game, he was totally ineffective as blitzer and he labored in coverage. The prime example of Hawk’s struggles that afternoon came late in the third quarter, with the score tied at 10 and Atlanta facing a pivotal 3rd-and-9 at its own 21. Under pressure, quarterback Matt Ryan checked down to running back Jason Snelling. Hawk was in perfect position to come up and bury the 230-pounder three yards short of the first down, but for some reason, he sat back and allowed himself to be plowed over for a first down.

As for Colledge, he wasn’t the only offensive lineman to have a tough time in the run game on that Sunday in Atlanta, but he struggled the most. His worst moment came on a first-and-goal from the Atlanta 1 in the second quarter. Coach Mike McCarthy called for a quarterback sneak – a play in which Aaron Rodgers could’ve crawled into the end zone had Colledge simply done his job. Instead, he kept his pads too high and allowed defensive tackle Peria Jerry to make a stop he had no business making. The former Boise State star also committed a key false start penalty on Green Bay’s final drive of the game.

Hawk and Colledge both played well last week. The former was an integral cog in a defense that limited the Eagles to 82 yards rushing and 16 points. The latter helped James Starks go from an unknown rookie to a media sensation in three hours.They’ll need to be just as good on Saturday. In order to beat the top-seeded Falcons, the Packers must be able to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. Due in part to the struggles of Colledge and Hawk, they did neither last time and it proved costly.

Bishop’s in, so who’s out?

Posted by Michael Rodney at 11:56 pm 5 Responses »

Jan 042011

Hawk may prove too expensive for the Packers to keep in 2011

The Green Bay Packers signed Desmond Bishop to a four-year extension worth $19 million on Tuesday, so we now know the identity of one of the starting inside linebackers in 2011. But who’ll be lining up next to the former Cal standout is still a question – a question that will almost certainly be answered before the first day of the 2011 league year (the exact date will be determined once a new CBA is reached). That’s when A.J. Hawk’s $10 million base salary becomes guaranteed.

The strong hunch here is that GM Ted Thompson prefers Hawk over Nick Barnett. He’s three years younger and a lot more durable. But he’s not worth a base salary of $10 million – with or without a salary cap. So look for Thompson to try to renegotiate Hawk’s deal prior to the first day of the 2011 league year. If the two sides can agree to a long-term contract extension that reduces the amount of money to be paid next season by a few million dollars, we would expect the former Ohio State star to be back with the Packers for a sixth season. If a new deal can’t be reached, we would expect Hawk to be released.

So what are the odds of Hawk agreeing to a long-term deal? Probably no better than 50-50. While he seems to like playing in Green Bay, his agent agreed to a sixth year in 2005 for a reason. He wanted his client to either earn $10 million with the Packers in 2011 or have the opportunity to make more than that on the open market. Agreeing to a deal that reduces Hawk’s salary next season – even by a single dollar – would make very little sense. That’s because there’s going to be a team or teams champing at the bit to sign a productive 27-year-old linebacker. Players like that rarely make it to free agency.

If Hawk winds up staying, Barnett would almost certainly be traded prior to the opening of training camp. The Packers simply can’t afford to go into next season with so many high-priced players at one position (and we haven’t even mentioned Brandon Chillar, who signed a $22 million deal in December 2009). But it’s not just about money. Bishop, Hawk and Barnett are all starting-caliber inside linebackers and none of the three would be happy in a backup role. So dealing Barnett would nip any potential problems in the bud, and at the same time, add another draft pick to the team’s coffers.

We wrote a story on the inside linebackers a week ago. At that time, we predicted Bishop and Barnett would be the starters next season. Our reasoning was that Bishop has a higher ceiling than Hawk, and more importantly, he’d be a lot less expensive to sign (although we expected him to command a lot more than $19 million). We’re now 1 for 1, but that was the easier part of the equation. The harder part will play out over the course of the next few months. Fortunately, the defense will be just fine either way.

Tough choices ahead at linebacker

Posted by Michael Rodney at 11:39 am 14 Responses »

Dec 282010

Bishop is one of three starting-caliber inside linebackers

It isn’t exactly Sophie’s Choice, but general manager Ted Thompson will have an extremely difficult decision of his own to make in a few months. Green Bay has three starting-caliber inside linebackers on the current roster, but in all likelihood, room for only two of them in 2011. Nick Barnett, who played in four games before undergoing wrist surgery in October, is under contract for two more years. He’s scheduled to earn $12.6 million over that time. A.J. Hawk, who is currently enjoying the finest season of his career, is on the books for $10 million in 2011 – the final year of his contract. And Desmond Bishop, who has played extremely well in place of Barnett, will be a free agent in March. Whether he’s restricted or unrestricted will be determined once a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. So who’ll be the odd man out? That’s a really tough call – and exactly why Thompson is paid the big bucks. But just for the heck of it, here’s how we analyze the pros and cons when it comes to bringing each player back:

Barnett

Pros: He played at a Pro Bowl-level in 2009, recording 105 tackles, 4 sacks and 7 pass deflections. He’s one of the few vocal leaders on the defensive side of the ball. His salary is more than reasonable for the next two years (remember, backup inside linebacker Brandon Chillar will make an average of $5.6 million through 2013). He’s a very good athlete who plays in space better than either Bishop or Hawk.

Cons: He’ll be 30 in May. That makes him 38 months older than Bishop and 32 months older than Hawk. He’s missed 19 games in the past three seasons due to surgeries to his knee and wrist. Is that simply bad luck or the beginning of a trend? He’s not a prototypical inside linebacker. He’s aggressive, but at 235 pounds, lacks the strength to consistently take on blockers at the line of scrimmage.

Bishop

Pros: He has the most upside. He started for the first time in 2010 and has gotten better every week. At 26, he’s the youngest of the three. He’s the most physical inside linebacker on the team. He’s made quite a few big plays this season (3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and an interception return for a TD in only 11 starts). He’s a punishing hitter who adds much-needed toughness and meanness to the defense.

Cons: If he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency, it’s going to cost a lot of money to keep him. He could be paid as much in 2011 as Barnett will make in the next two years. He doesn’t run very well. Dom Capers has done a great job of playing to his strengths, but with an offseason to study film, offensive coordinators will work hard to find ways to exploit this weakness – both against the run and the pass.

Hawk

Pros: He’s currently enjoying his best season. He seemed to thrive when handed the play calling responsibilities after Barnett’s injury. He’ll turn 27 in a few weeks, so he’s just now entering the prime of his career. He hasn’t missed a single game since being drafted by the Packers in 2005. He’s improved in coverage. He’ll never look pretty in space, but he hasn’t been much of a liability in 2010.

Cons: Like Bishop, he’s going to be very expensive to keep. Whether the Packers honor his current deal (unlikely) or attempt to work out a long-term extension, he’s going to be paid eight figures in 2011. He doesn’t make many big plays. He has only 8.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in 79 games. His ceiling is limited. His speed and functional football strength are marginal at best for a 3-4 inside linebacker.

As you can see, choosing between the three players isn’t going to be easy. The guess here is that Barnett is safe and ultimately the decision will be between Bishop and Hawk. It’s hard to imagine Thompson paying out over $20M in 2011 to keep both. The guess here – notice the trend – is that Hawk will demand more money as part of a long-term contract. That, along with Bishop’s higher ceiling, could be the difference. A trio of Barnett, Bishop and Chillar would be fine for the next two years, and in the meantime, Thompson will be able to draft a player to replace Barnett in 2013. Anyway, that’s how we see it as of now. How Thompson sees it won’t be known for a few more months.

HAWK'S FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN

Posted by Packer Update at 10:57 am 4 Responses »

Jan 282010

FLYING AWAY?

A.J. Hawk hasn’t come close to living up to his lofty draft status, but the former Ohio State star has been a consistent and solid player for the Packers ever since arriving in 2006. In a day and age when so many top-10 picks wind up being worthless, it would be very unfair to attach the dreaded “B-word” to Hawk. “He’s far from a bust,” said a scout for another team. “He lines up every week and gives maximum effort on every play. You win with guys like that. I just don’t think he’s a particularly good fit for the new scheme and that’s why I question whether he’ll be back next season.”

Hawk is scheduled to make $4.1 million in 2010, but money won’t be a determining factor on whether he returns. “Salary will definitely be an issue in 2011, but it’s more about performance right now,” said a person familiar with the situation. “[General manager] Ted Thompson will hold on to Hawk if the defensive coaches think he’s one of the two best inside linebackers on the roster. They obviously considered him to be just that at the start of last season, but I’m not so sure any more. The decision to give Brandon Chillar all that money has to make you wonder.” Chillar signed a four-year extension worth over $21 million in December, and while that’s not a huge deal in today’s NFL, it’s more than a team typically pays for a situational player.

While Chillar wasn’t overly impressive last season, he seems to fit the 3-4 better than Hawk. “Ideally, you’d like an inside linebacker who is tall and can turn his hips and change directions easily,” said the scout. “Chillar has two inches on Hawk and he’s much more fluid.” And that’s not all. “Some of the decision-makers think that Chillar would benefit greatly from taking more reps with the starters during the week,” said the source. “Remember, he played his best football in the summer and early in the season when Nick Barnett was still recovering from an injury. Chillar’s performance fell off once Barnett was healthy enough to start practicing on a relatively full-time basis.”

SUCCESS IS ALWAYS A TEAM EFFORT

Posted by Packer Update at 10:29 am 1 Response »

Dec 092009

Stepping up

The Packers have won four consecutive games and the players most responsible are obvious to pretty much everyone. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a Pro Bowl level. Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher have solidified the offensive line by squeezing every last ounce out of their aging bodies. Clay Matthews has blossomed from an impressive rookie to a legitimate stud at outside linebacker. Charles Woodson is making a serious run at being named defensive player of the year. And Nick Collins is producing enough big plays to quite possibly earn that megabucks extension he’s been looking for since the spring. But when a team starts to win on a regular basis, it always takes more than great play from a few great players. It takes good play from a lot of players, and that’s exactly what Green Bay has been getting over the past four games.

With the help of a former scout, here are a few of the team’s unsung heroes who deserve to be recognized for their inspired play over the past month:

BRANDON JACKSON: “The offensive line is doing a much better job in pass protection, but don’t overlook just how important a role Jackson has played in the turnaround. He’s become incredibly dependable in blitz pickup. And he’s not just getting in the way of linebackers, he’s taking them on and often winning the battle.”

JAMES JONES: “Like the team itself, Jones was a disappointment in the first half of the season. He wasn’t getting much separation, and even when he was able to extricate himself from a defender, he wasn’t making plays. But that was then and this is now. He’s caught 15 passes in the past four games and is beginning to look like the receiver who showed so much promise as a rookie.”

JOSH SITTON: “He was solid in September and October; he’s been very good in November and December. It took him a while to get comfortable, but now he’s playing with the type of aggressiveness and physicality that this offensive line so desperately needs. He still makes some technique mistakes, but it’s important to remember that he’s still learning how to play inside.”

B.J. RAJI: “He took some criticism early in the season, and that was very unfair. Do you know how hard it is for a 340-pounder to play on a high ankle sprain? Now healthy, Raji’s showing why the Packers took him at No. 9. He’s using his strength and surprising quickness to disrupt opposing offenses on a much more consistent basis. Plus, his quality work is allowing the starting defensive linemen to stay fresh by playing less snaps.”

A.J. HAWK: “He still isn’t making enough big plays, but he’s been more aggressive as of late and that’s one of the big reasons why the run defense has been so good. Give [assistant coach] Winston Moss a lot of credit. He stopped coddling Hawk a few months ago and finally started holding him accountable for his mediocre play. That proved to be a much-needed kick in the ass.”

ATARI BIGBY: “He won a starting job based on his intimidating hits, but those have been few and far between this season. Instead of looking for the KO, Bigby’s playing a more controlled brand of football and it’s working. He’ll never be a great cover safety, but he’s no longer a liability. He’s playing a more cerebral game these days and that’s exactly what Dom Capers is looking for.”

We listed only six unsung heroes, but there are plenty of other players who deserve credit as well. “Guys like Ahman Green, Spencer Havner and Desmond Bishop don’t play much from scrimmage, but they’ve been a part of the turnaround,” said the scout. “Green has added a little juice to the running game, Havner did OK when forced into action at tight end, and there are times when Bishop looks like the only member of the special teams who gives a shit.” Football is the ultimate team game and right now the Packers are playing like a team – a winning team.