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Jul 112012
 
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The National Football League will hold its supplemental draft on Thursday afternoon, and the Green Bay Packers are not expected to participate. Based on the past 34 years, that’s probably a pretty good idea. Of the 41 players selected since 1977, only five went on to have distinguished professional careers.

Quarterback Bernie Kosar (1985), wide receivers Cris Carter (1987) and Rob Moore (1990), guard Mike Wahle (1989) and nose tackle Jamal Williams (1989) played in a combined 15 Pro Bowls. Linebacker Brian Bosworth (1987), halfback Bobby Humphrey (1989), defensive end Darren Mickell (1992), linebacker Ahmad Brooks (2006) and tackle Jared Gaither (2007) found varying degrees of success in the NFL. And while the jury is still out on defensive end Jeremy Jarmon (2009), nose tackle Josh Brent (2010) and quarterback Terrelle Pryor (2011), early returns aren’t encouraging.

The other 28 players were either busts or journeymen. And some of the busts were very high picks. Quarterbacks Dave Wilson (1981), Steve Walsh (1989) Timm Rosenbach (1989) and Dave Brown (1992) were all taken in round one. They combined to throw 136 touchdowns and 187 interceptions. Running back Tony Hollings (2nd/2003) and defensive tackles Dan Sileo (3rd/1987) and Darren Benson (3rd/1995) were other high picks who flopped at the next level. And as difficult as it is to find a star in the early rounds, it’s even harder to find a steal in the later rounds. Only Carter (4th), and to a much lesser degree Gaither (5th), would fall into that category.

Eight players are eligible for Thursday’s draft, but only one is certain to be selected. Wide receiver Josh Gordon, who didn’t play football in 2011 after transferring from Baylor to Utah, could go as high as the second round. He has outstanding size and good speed. He was also fairly productive in his one season as a full-time starter. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Gordon wind up with the Redskins. That would reunite him with quarterback Robert Griffin III. It would make perfect sense, and the move would be lauded by most experts. But based on the history of this draft, the odds are very much against the move still being lauded five years from now.

Jul 102012
 
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It’s no surprise that Packers outside linebackers coach Kevin Greene is raving about one of his rookies. The surprise is that the player getting all the accolades is Dezman Moses. While first-round pick and projected starter Nick Perry made minimal noise at last month’s minicamp, the undrafted free agent from Tulane was making plays all over the practice field.

“I think Moses has a natural feel for the position,” Greene said recently. “He does things that just absolutely look natural in his movement for the position. He sees things at an early stage. In the scheme implementation of our defense, he’s starting to see things early, and that’s always a positive. He was a linebacker (in college), so he’s not making too far of a transition playing this position. He has some good, natural feel about him.”

And Green wasn’t the only one raving about Moses. Some of his teammates were just as enthusiastic. ”He’s been earning all his playing time,” said Pro Bowler Clay Matthews, who knows a thing or two about playing the position. “Obviously, this is OTAs, but he has shown some athleticism out there. He’s shown he can get after the quarterback, drop into coverage, be a natural athlete. He’s got good size and strength. We’ll see when the pads come on, but he’s been doing well. He’s shown the coaches everything he needs to at the outside linebacker position.”

After reading all these superlatives, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that Moses was last seen parting Lake Michigan. But seriously, while all this sounds promising, it’s way too soon to get excited. Analyzing a football player during a minicamp practice is akin to critiquing an actor during a dress rehearsal. Neither makes a lot of sense. There’s a reason Moses wasn’t drafted. He’s not very big (6’2, 248) and he’s not very fast (4.82 and 4.85 at his pro day in March). Does that mean he can’t play in the NFL? Of course not. What it means is that the odds are very much stacked against him. And to his credit, he seems to know it. He also doesn’t seem to care.

“Even in high school, I wasn’t the fastest. I wasn’t the biggest player, but I worked the hardest, and it’s gotten me to where I am now,” Moses said in an interview with The Times-Picayune. “So even when people say, ‘Oh well, he’s just not big enough, or he’s just not fast enough,’ I say I work hard enough, and that’s always my answer. That’s the answer for anything, really.”

Moses does appear to be one of those guys who plays bigger than he looks and faster than he times, but after watching a few Tulane games, I just don’t see a future NFL starter. While he may have looked like Superman in shorts last month, he looked more like Clark Kent in pads. Moses plays hard on every snap, but I didn’t see a particularly explosive first step off the ball. That, along with his below-average speed, makes me question how effective a pass rusher he’ll be at the next level. I also saw a player who lacks take-on strength, stands too tall at times and can be run at.

That’s not to say I didn’t see some positive things. Along with giving maximum effort at all times, Moses has quick feet, fluid hips and good body control. Because of these traits, I can see him developing into a pretty effective cover linebacker. He also shows the ability to locate the ball.

I feel kind of silly contradicting experts like Greene and Matthews, but I just don’t see anything special about Moses. That said, I could definitely see him making the final 53-man roster. He’ll be competing with returning veterans Erik Walden, Frank Zombo, Vic So’oto, D.J. Smith, Robert Francois, Brad Jones and Jamari Lattimore and fellow freshman Terrell Manning for what figures to be five or six backup spots. Green Bay kept 10 linebackers last season.

I like Moses’ chances against that competition. Based on what I’ve seen on video, he has more upside than Walden, Zombo, Francois and Jones and he’s a more natural fit at linebacker than So’oto and Lattimore. So if I had to pick which backup linebackers will make the final 53-man roster, I’d probably go with Moses, Zombo, Smith, Jones and Manning. And if he makes the team, who knows what the future will hold. Maybe he’ll be the next Matthews. Or maybe he’ll be the next Cyril Obiozor. Or maybe he’ll fit somewhere in between. That would be my guess.

Jul 092012
 
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It’s been nearly three weeks since Johnny Jolly applied for reinstatement, and if Commissioner Roger Goodell decides to allow the veteran defensive lineman back into the league, an announcement is likely to be made before the end of the month.

Based on what’s happened in the past, if there’s no news by the start of training camp, the odds are that Jolly won’t be reinstated for the 2012 season. Both Adam “Pacman” Jones and Mike Vick were reinstated prior to the start of training camp. That only seems fair when dealing with a player who hasn’t been on the field for a lengthy period of time. Jolly will need a full summer to get back into anything resembling football shape. Reinstating him any later would all but guarantee a third consecutive season out of the NFL for the former Texas A&M star.

If Jolly is allowed back into the league, there’s a pretty good chance his reinstatement will be on a conditional basis at first. Like Jones and Vick, he’ll have to prove to Goodell that he’s a changed man. If he does, he’ll be granted full reinstatement. That could come before the start of the season or after Jolly serves a suspension. Vick, who also spent time in jail, sat out two games in 2009.

Jul 072012
 
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The National Football League will hold its supplemental draft on July 12. Here’s a look at the eight players who will be available.

DB Quaylon Ewing-Burton: He played in all 13 games as a sophomore for Boise State last season, including four starts. He didn’t see much action late in the year after losing his starting job. He was dismissed from the team in January for failure to “live up to the standards of the program.” It wasn’t his first brush with trouble. He was suspended from his high school team for not abiding by the rules. Ewing-Burton has some ability, but probably not enough to convince a GM to draft him.

WR Josh Gordon: Like Ewing-Burton, he comes with baggage. He was suspended at Baylor after a drug arrest, and then enrolled at Utah where he was unable to play last season due to NCAA transfer rules. Unlike Ewing-Burton, he has the talent to get drafted. He has great size (6’3, 225) and is expected to run under 4.5 at his workout early next week. He caught 42 passes for 714 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010. Some experts predict that Gordon could go as high as the second round, but that’s probably too much of a risk. The third or fourth round is more likely.

FB Adam Harris: No off-the-field issues here, but he’s still the biggest risk in the draft. He suffered three concussions and Syracuse decided “as a result of the injuries, a review of his concussion history and his increased vulnerability for further concussions, he will not be allowed to participate in football.” He said in May that he’s been given the OK play again from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and a neurologist who works for the Steelers. Harris probably wouldn’t have been drafted even with a clean bill of health. The big question now is whether any NFL team will even be willing to give him a chance as a free agent.

OL Adrian Haughton: Another player with baggage, but he has enough size (6’4, 360) to intrigue teams. He started 21 games at right tackle for Iowa State in 2008 and 2009, but was dismissed from the program in the summer of 2010 for violating team rules. No details were disclosed. He spent the past few months playing for the Orlando Predators in the Arena Football League. He’s projected as a guard by most pro scouts. Haughton could get selected very late, but it’s more likely that he’ll be signed as a free agent. He should have a number of suitors.

LB Larry Lumpkin: He’s an intriguing player who ran into academic trouble at both Alabama A&M and Carson-Newman. That will certainly give NFL teams pause. Some scouts have compared him to D.J. Smith of the Packers, another undersized but very productive linebacker from a small school. He recorded 94 tackles – 10.5 for loss – last season. Lumpkin could get drafted late if he runs a good 40 at his scheduled workout next week, but it’s more likely that he’ll sign as a free agent. A perfect player to stash on the practice squad for a year or two.

LB Montez Robinson: He was a highly sought after high school prospect who chose Georgia over LSU, Alabama and Auburn. He hasn’t played football since the ’09 season. He was dismissed from the team in April 2010 after being charged with simple battery/family violence. He allegedly “grabbed and pushed a woman off of his bed and then picked her up and slammed her to the ground.”He played defensive end as a freshman, but was moved to linebacker as a sophomore. That’s where he’s projected to line up in the NFL. Robinson has talent, but he’s hit more women than quarterbacks in the past two years. There’s no chance he’ll get drafted.

WR Houston Tuminello: He started as a freshman at Louisiana Tech, but left in the middle of his sophomore season due to personal reasons. Things went downhill from there. He failed to distinguish himself in subsequent stops at Stephen F. Austin and tiny McMurray College. He lacks ideal size (5’11, 190) and speed (4.66). Tuminello won’t get drafted. He’ll probably spend the upcoming season in Canada or the UFL and then try to hook on with an NFL team next spring.

RB Ed Wesley: He gained 2,457 yards in three seasons at TCU, but decided to leave the team for family reasons. He’s a good football player who lacks ideal measurables. His size (5’9, 200) and speed (4.6 est.) won’t wow anybody, but he runs with good lateral quickness and surprising power. While he probably won’t start at the next level, he has a chance to be a solid backup in the right situation. Wesley might’ve gone as high as the fifth round in April, but that was then and this is now. Being picked very late or signing as a free agent are the most likely scenarios.

The Packers haven’t selected a player in the supplemental draft since offensive lineman Mike Wahle in 1998. That streak is almost certain to continue for another year. General manager Ted Thompson hates giving up future picks, and this is one of the weakest collection of prospects in recent memory. The only player with big-time talent carries more baggage than a Boeing 747.

Jul 062012
 
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Packer Update will highlight one key position every few days between now and the start of training camp. Today’s post focuses on the running backs.

Under pressure: Much was expected of James Starks after he exploded onto the scene in the 2010 playoffs. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to only 133 carries last season. Injuries have been an issue with Starks for the past three years. He missed his senior season in college with a shoulder, the first nine games of his rookie season in the NFL with a hamstring and three full games and parts of four others last season with an ankle. The Packers still believe in Starks’ talent, but unless he can stay on the field, the team will almost certainly have a new starting halfback in 2013.

Breakout candidate: Head coach Mike McCarthy was just getting ready to incorporate Alex Green into the offense when the rookie tore his ACL in week 7. His rehabilitation is going well and it’s likely he’ll be ready to practice on a limited basis when training camp begins. If healthy, Green has a chance to be an exciting change-of-pace back and a weapon out of the backfield on third down. He catches the ball effortlessly and he can make people miss in the open field. How much he contributes this season will be determined by his knee and his ability to pass protect.

Key role player: The emergence of rookie Brandon Saine last season is one of the reasons GM Ted Thompson has shown little interest in re-signing Ryan Grant. The former Ohio State star was promoted from the practice squad in early November, and while he touched the ball only 28 times from scrimmage in eight games, he nevertheless impressed the coaches with his consistency. Saine catches everything and he’s rarely out of position when it comes to picking up the blitz. He probably doesn’t have the run skills to be a starter in the NFL, but he should be a useful role player for years. Older fans can think of him as a more talented Herman Fontenot.

Rookie watch: Thompson didn’t draft a running back in April, but he did sign 3 intriguing rookie free agents. Marc Tyler‘s off-the-field problems and slow 40 kept him from being drafted, but he does have talent. Duane Bennett isn’t as talented, but he was far more productive in college. Fullback Nic Cooper took most of the snaps in place of John Kuhn (knee) at last month’s minicamp. If the Packers once again decide to begin the season with only four running backs, there almost certainly won’t be any room for a new face on the 53-man roster. That means Tyler, Bennett and Cooper will likely be fighting for spots on the practice squad.

Best depth-chart battle: Starks struggles at times to pick up the blitz, so the coaches would like to replace him on third down. Green and Saine both have the ability to fill that role. A healthy Green will probably get first crack, but Saine is too dependable to count out. He just might wind up being the best man for the job.

Jul 052012
 
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Bob Harlan is a hero to Green Bay Packer fans and I would normally want to hear everything he has to say about the most storied franchise in the National Football League. But when it comes to his opinion on the current situation surrounding Brett Favre, I couldn’t care less what the team’s former president and CEO has on his mind. That’s because he wasn’t really around during the summer of ’08 when old No. 4 took a big No. 2 on the entire organization.

Therefore, it’s easier for Harlan to forgive Favre and welcome him back to the family. He wasn’t called called a liar on national TV. He wasn’t jeered at practice. And his job wasn’t disrupted on a daily basis. That happened to GM Ted Thompson, quarterback Aaron Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy, and until those men are ready to embrace Favre once again, nobody else’s opinion really matters.

Speaking of which, I’m getting tired of reading stories about how Favre isn’t ready to mend fences with the organization yet. He’s not ready? Are you kidding me?! The only way he should ever be allowed to step foot inside Lambeau Field again is if he’s willing to make a public and heartfelt apology. Not to the fans, but to the people he really hurt four years ago. Let’s see him apologize to Thompson, Rodgers and McCarthy. Then, and only then, should anyone even start thinking about planning a retirement ceremony for an incredibly selfish human being who managed to tear apart in months the reputation he had built over a decade and a half.

Jul 042012
 
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In between injuries, Frank Zombo has played some pretty good football for the Green Bay Packers. The problem is how little time there’s been between injuries. The third-year outside linebacker from Central Michigan missed six games in 2010 with a sprained ankle and 11 games last season with a broken shoulder blade and a strained hamstring. And because the hammy is still not 100 percent, Zombo was forced to sit out the OTAs in May and the minicamp in June. His availability for the start of training camp is up in the air.

In the meantime, general manager Ted Thompson selected Nick Perry in the first round of April’s draft, re-signed veteran Erik Walden, who started 15 games opposite Clay Matthews last season, and uncovered a possible hidden gem in rookie free agent Dezman Moses. Thus, a player who only 17 months ago started and performed well in the Super Bowl will be forced to fight just to keep his spot on the roster.

If – and it’s a big if – Zombo can get and stay healthy, he’ll make it difficult on Thompson to get rid of him. The 25-year-old is a hard-working, tough competitor who plays with a lot of energy. He struggled against the run last season due to injuries, but as a rookie he showed good strength at the point of attack and the ability to hold his ground and take on blocks. And while he’s never going to be great rushing the QB or dropping into coverage, he’s quick enough off the edge to give second-tier tackles some trouble and instinctive enough to stay with most tight ends.

Jul 032012
 
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Aaron Rodgers has completed 66.2% of his throws since 2009. That number becomes even more impressive when you consider how many passes his receivers have dropped. James Jones and Donald Driver rank in the bottom seven of the 61 wide receivers who had at least 125 catchable balls thrown their way over the past three years. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones has dropped 20 of 139 (14.39%) catchable balls and Driver 22 of 179 (12.29%). If you add in all the passes Jermichael Finley let slip through his fingers in 2011, I’m not sure which is more impressive – Rodgers’ still gaudy completion percentage or the self-control he showed by never criticizing his receivers.

Nobody should be surprised that Jones is on this dubious list. Despite being blessed with extremely soft hands, he’s been dropping passes since the day he arrived in Green Bay. But he’s also made a ton of big plays in the past three seasons. The former San Jose State star gained 14.6 yards every time he caught the ball and scored 17 TDs on only 120 receptions. His TD/catch ratio of 14.22% is better than those of Houston’s Andre Johnson (8.61%), Atlanta’s Roddy White (9.73%) and Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald (10.12%). That doesn’t mean Jones is in their class as a receiver, but it does show how valuable he is to the offense and why his occasional bout with the dropsies can be overlooked.

It’s hard to put as positive a spin on Driver’s 22 drops – five of which came in limited snaps last season. That’s because, unlike Jones, he’s made very few big plays during that time. Driver has averaged only 13.1 yards on his 158 catches. That makes the 37-year-old purely a possession receiver at this point in his career, and possession receivers simply can’t drop the ball 12.29% of the time. So why did general manager Ted Thompson decide to bring him back? Besides being a terrific leader, Driver still has a nose for the end zone. His TD/catch ratio since  2009 is 10.13% – which places him well behind Jones but above the league average for receivers with at least 120 receptions.

Jul 022012
 
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There are dozens of little-known rookies on the Packers’ current roster, but diehard fans know plenty about all the returning vets. Well, almost all the returning vets. Herb Taylor was signed last December, and even though he was part of the team for the final three games of the season, he’s the forgotten man when it comes to projecting which offensive linemen will be around come opening day. The 27-year-old was originally a sixth-round pick of the Chiefs in 2007. He played in 18 games with one start for Kansas City before being released in 2008. Taylor kicked around the league for the next few years before the Packers signed him to replace an injured Derek Sherrod.

With Marshall Newhouse, Bryan Bulaga, Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang and Jeff Saturday locks to make the team, that leaves three or four openings on the 53-man roster. If healthy, Sherrod will be the No. 3 tackle. Evan Dietrich-Smith figures to be the top backup at both guard and center. Taylor, Ray Dominguez, Sampson Genus and rookies Shea Allard, Don Barclay, Jaymes Brooks, Grant Cook, Andrew Datko, Tommie Draheim and Mike McCabe figure to battle it out for one or two spots. Taylor’s edge is that he’s the most versatile and experienced player among that group.

Taylor has taken snaps at both tackle and guard since entering the league, but he lacks size for the outside and strength for the inside. That makes him a good football player without a natural position. That also explains why the former TCU star hasn’t been on a team’s active game day roster since George W. Bush was in the White House. And while the odds are very much against Taylor being part of the 2012 Packers, he shouldn’t be counted out. He impressed people at a workout last December, and let’s be perfectly honest, he won’t be facing the stiffest of competition.

Jul 012012
 
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I was pleasantly surprised after studying Phillip Merling’s play with the Dolphins last season. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same thing after taking a look at Daniel Muir. The 28-year-old, who was signed by Green Bay as a street free agent on Mar. 23, played in four games for the Colts a year ago before being released in early November. What I saw was a defensive lineman who got stuck on blocks and was knocked off-balance way too much. It was pretty easy to see why he couldn’t stick with the two worst teams in the National Football League (the Rams dumped him at the end of training camp).

I remembered Muir as a better player from his stint with the Packers in 2007, so I watched a few dozen snaps from 2010. He was definitely more impressive. He still got overpowered too easily for someone who weighs well over 300 pounds, but at least he showed some quickness at the snap. I saw no such quickness last season. He looked heavy-legged. Perhaps he wasn’t in top shape following the lengthy lockout. Whatever the reason, he’ll need to recapture his 2010 form if he’s to have any chance of sticking. But to be honest, if Muir makes the final 53-man roster, it probably means that a number of young defensive linemen didn’t step up as expected.

Jun 262012
 
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The Green Bay Packers will have to spend at least $200 million in the next six to 18 months to re-sign receiver Greg Jennings and extend quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews. In order to keep those three stars, general manager Ted Thompson will almost certainly have to let other good players go. For example, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see ascending left guard T.J. Lang sign elsewhere as an unrestricted free agent in 2013. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker A.J. Hawk were released or forced to take massive pay cuts following this season. But there’s another player whose shaky future in Green Bay will definitely surprise you. Two years after agreeing to a five-year extension worth just over $38 million, cornerback Tramon Williams could very well be on his way out.

Williams parlayed a breakthrough season in 2010 into that lucrative deal, but he struggled in 2011 after injuring his right shoulder on opening night.  Normally you wouldn’t be worried about a shoulder injury suffered in September lingering into the next season, but after reading a recent article on FoxSportsWisconsin.com, it’s hard not to be concerned. “We did strength tests on my shoulder (in early June) and it was at about 50 percent when they tested,” Williams told Paul Imig. “It probably was worse during the season. It was bad. I hadn’t done anything on it for a while, trying to heal it up a little bit. I started my rehab process, did that for a couple weeks, then we did the strength test to see where we were. They tested my strong arm, which is my left arm, and then the right arm, and my right arm was significantly weaker than my left arm. And this is my dominant arm, my right arm, so it was weak.”

A weak right shoulder greatly limits Williams’ ability to be physical with wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. And being physical with wide receivers is one of the things that made the former Louisiana Tech star so successful in 2010. The Packers are obviously hoping that the shoulder will continue to get stronger in the coming months. Increased strength, along with a (hopefully) more effective pass rush, should allow Williams to perform better than he did a year ago. But he’ll probably have to return to his Pro Bowl form of 2010 in order to justify the huge raise he’s scheduled to get in 2013. And based on the information in Imig’s story, it’s fair to question whether that’s possible.

Williams is scheduled to make a base salary of $2.3 million this season. That number jumps to $5.9 million ($7.4 million against the cap) in 2013. That’s the type of money a team pays for a star player. Releasing Williams next offseason would save the team $5.9 million in real money and $5 million against the cap. That might not seem like a lot, but every dollar will count when it comes to getting contracts done with Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews. It’s also important to remember that Thompson will have to deal with Jermichael Finley and B.J. Raji in the not too distant future.

Besides his contract, there are other things working against Williams. One is his age. He’ll turn 30 next March, and while Woodson has been defying Father Time for years, the majority of corners – even 100% healthy ones – begin to show signs of decline around that birthday. Another thing working against Williams is the potential depth at the position. Sam Shields looked like a budding star in 2010. Thompson traded up in the second round to draft Casey Hayward in April. And the coaches have been heaping praise on Davon House throughout the offseason. All three of those players are under 26. If at least two of the them prove to be legitimate, it’s difficult to imagine Williams returning in 2013 unless he regains the form that made him arguably the second-best cornerback in the league in 2010.

Jun 212012
 
Former Dolphin was signed by the Packers earlier in the offseason

The Packers quietly signed Phillip Merling a few weeks after the Dolphins released the veteran defensive end. Based on what I read out of Miami, I was expecting the former Clemson star to be a cross between Jamal Reynolds and Justin Harrell. But after watching four Dolphins games from last season, I’m feeling better about this acquisition.

Don’t get me wrong, Merling is nothing special. He started Miami’s opener at right defensive end, but after jumping offsides on his first play and falling to the ground untouched on his second, he saw only sporadic action the rest of the day. What I saw in that game, and in the other three I watched, was a decent rotational defensive lineman. Merling did an adequate job versus the run when he kept his pad level low, but for some reason he tended to rise off the snap. That’s something defensive line coach Mike Trgovac will obviously be focusing on all summer. As a pass rusher, the 27-year-old didn’t get much pressure on the quarterback, but he did work hard and at least managed to push some guards and centers around a bit.

Merling blew out his Achilles’ tendon in July 2010, so he was only 13 months removed from the injury when he lined up against the New England Patriots to open last season. Just out of curiosity, I wanted to see how he looked prior to the devastating injury. I decided to watch a few games from 2009 (thanks Game Rewind). I can’t say that Merling played all that much better, but he was definitely a half-step quicker. That enabled him to be slightly more disruptive – both against the run and the pass. To put it simply, the player I saw in ’09 was better than C.J. Wilson, Jarius Wynn, Howard Green and Mike Neal. Of course, whether Merling can ever be that player again remains to be seen.

I wish I could’ve seen Merling at last week’s minicamp. Not that how a player looks in shorts means a whole lot, but it would’ve been interesting to see what kind of shape he was in, how he was moving and how much effort he was putting forth. His work ethic – or lack thereof – was one of the reasons Miami gave up on him. If that’s still an issue, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Merling released before training camp even starts. Thompson isn’t going to waste a valuable roster spot on a lazy veteran – not when there are so many hungry young players looking to make the team.

Assuming what I saw last season is what I’ll see in training camp, I give Merling a better than 50/50 chance of making the final roster. B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett and second-round pick Jerel Worthy are locks to be around in early September, and if healthy, so is fourth-round pick Mike Daniels. That leaves Merling to battle it out with Wilson, Wynn, Lawrence Guy, Daniel Muir and Johnny Jones for what will probably be two spots. Even if he’s no better than he was a year ago, I would give Merling the clear edge over Wynn, Muir and Jones. Wilson is a very similar player, and since he’s younger and cheaper, I think he’ll survive for another season. That means it could ultimately come down to Merling and Guy, a second-year player from Arizona State who missed his entire rookie season with a concussion.

Here’s what one scout service said about Merling four years ago: “Compares to Justin Tuck of the Giants. Both defensive ends will make a nice living coming off the edge. They have impressive size, though Merling is best playing on the move to utilize a sudden initial step to slip past blocks. He is not a good stack-and-control type and must do a better job of protecting himself from low blocks, but he is quick to provide outside run containment and shows a quick swim-and-spin move that generally gets him into the backfield to pressure the pocket. He won’t read and react in an instant, but has closing speed to seal the deal, even in long pursuit, once he locates the ball. He has to improve his lower-body strength, but there is enough athletic ability there to get by as his body continues to mature.”

From being compared to one of the league’s premier all-around defensive linemen to having to battle the likes of Wilson, Wynn and Guy for a roster spot, life in the pros hasn’t been kind to Merling. That said, he still has enough left in the tank to extend his career. If he’s willing to work hard – something he was criticized for not always doing in Miami – there’s a chance this below-the-radar signing in the winter will pay dividends for the Packers in the fall. That’s more than I ever expected prior to turning on my computer and watching a half-dozen Dolphins games last week.

Jun 192012
 
Veteran defensive lineman hasn't played since '09 season

Veteran defensive lineman hasn’t played since 2009

According to the National Football Post, Packers defensive end Johnny Jolly has applied for reinstatement to the National Football League. The 29-year-old has been on indefinite suspension since July 2010. He was recently released from prison just six months into a six-year sentence for violating the terms of his probation for a drug conviction.

If reinstated by Commissioner Roger Goodell, Jolly would like to return to the Packers. “I am dedicated to really make a change in my life and come back and be a positive role model,” he said. “I think I have a great shot at going back to those guys. They’re a great organization. The coaches are very good, the players are good. I know they have supported me 100 percent. I want to say that would be a dream come true, but I made it in the NFL before. So, I would say it would be like another dream. It would be a journey and going back to do the things I love and showing everybody you can make mistakes but it’s the way you correct the things you’ve done wrong. I want to make the Packers look good if they want to take me back or not.”

Prior to his off-the-field problems, Jolly was developing into a premier 3-4 end. The former Texas A&M star was a big reason the Packers were the No. 1 run defense in the league in 2009. Blessed with great size (6’3, 325) and strength, Jolly was rarely knocked off his spot that season. And while he managed only one sack, he was athletic and alert enough to bat down a franchise-record 11 passes at the line of scrimmage. He also played the game with unbridled energy – an often overlooked trait that was glaringly missing from last season’s zombie-like defensive unit.

Assuming Jolly is clean and sober, it’s hard to imagine Goodell not allowing him back into the league. After all, plenty of currently active players have done far worse things. Philadelphia’s Michael Vick killed and tortured dogs. New England’s Donte’ Stallworth killed an innocent pedestrian while driving drunk. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall has been arrested multiple times on suspicion of domestic violence. Baltimore’s Ray Lewis, one of the faces of the NFL, was sentenced to probation for obstructing justice in the stabbing deaths of two men. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

It’s likely that general manager Ted Thompson will have a decision to make in the near future. Jolly signed a one-year deal worth $2.5 million on June 15, 2010, so the Packers still own his rights. But would Thompson want him back? That’s hard to predict, but the guess here is no. And it has nothing to do with morality. Thompson has given second chances to a number of other players in the past. A good example is wide receiver Koren Robinson, who was welcomed back in October 2007 after completing a one-year suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

But Jolly’s situation is different. He hasn’t played a down of football since January 2010. Even worse, he hasn’t worked out with the Packers since that time. The odds of him being in anything resembling football shape are about the same as the odds of Sean Payton and Gregg Williams vacationing with Goodell this summer. In fact, Jolly has already admitted to being overweight. “I’m in pretty good shape,” Jolly told the National Football Post’s Brad Biggs. “I would like to lose about 10 pounds. I’m probably at 332 right now, about 7 pounds over my playing weight.”

Look, I have no idea how much Jolly weighs, but if he admits to 332, I’m guessing the actual number is a bit higher. I just don’t think he’ll be ready to play football in September – at least not this September. I hope I’m wrong. I’ve been one of Jolly’s biggest supporters for years and the state of the current defensive line – even with the influx of new talent – still concerns me. The Jolly of 2009 would make the Packers defense, or any defense for that matter, a lot better. But that player no longer exists. Here’s hoping neither does that self-destructive human being.

Jun 182012
 
Veteran wide receiver has a knack for scoring touchdowns

According to rumors, the Packers attempted to trade wide receiver James Jones prior to April’s draft. If these rumors were true – and based on where they originated, I have my doubts – then general manager Ted Thompson should thank his lucky stars that he never received an offer he couldn’t refuse. While the former San Jose State star may not have developed into the player some projected him to be following an impressive rookie campaign in 2007, he was an underrated and integral cog in an offensive machine that established franchise records for points and total yards a year ago.

Could the offense survive without Jones? Of course. With Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb, the Packers would still have an abundance of weapons in the passing game. But there’s a reason star quarterback Aaron Rodgers said the following last summer about the importance of re-signing Jones, an unrestricted free agent at the time: ”He should be priority No. 1. And I mean that with all my heart. He really should be priority No. 1. We don’t win the Super Bowl without him. And we need him. I think he’s as talented a player as we’ve got on the team, and I think his best football is in front of him. And I think he’s a valuable asset that we don’t want to get rid of.”

If you carefully study Jones during the course of a game, it’s pretty easy to see why Rodgers was so effusive in his praise. The 28-year-old has the ability to separate from defensive backs as well as any receiver on the roster. That’s why he’s been able to score 20 touchdowns in the past three seasons despite catching a modest 135 passes in limited snaps as either the third or fourth wide receiver. He’s also not afraid to throw his big body around as a downfield blocker.

What has kept and will continue to keep Jones from achieving stardom is his inconsistency. He drops too many passes, runs lazy routes at times and doesn’t always compete hard enough for the ball. That’s why other teams weren’t willing to throw big money at him a year ago. But at a cost of $2.8 million in 2012, he’s a bargain. How big of a bargain? Fellow wide receiver Donald Driver will be paid $2.3 million this season, and I feel pretty safe in predicting that no opposing defensive coordinator will feel comfortable covering Jones with a linebacker any time soon.

May 222012
 
Unproven Graham Harrell figures to be the backup QB in 2012

Unproven Graham Harrell figures to be the backup QB

The Packers have won 29 games, including a Super Bowl, in the past two seasons. They are also one of the youngest and deepest teams in the league. But that doesn’t mean the defending NFC North champs are without flaws. Here are five areas of concern heading into 2012:

Backup quarterback - While it’s true that most teams would be in big trouble if their starting quarterback got seriously injured, it’s also true that most teams have a more proven backup than Graham Harrell. Maybe the former Texas Tech star will develop into the next Matt Flynn, but I could see him just as easily performing like Caleb Hanie. In fact, I think that’s a more likely scenario. Harrell is a smart player, but his arm strength is extremely limited. Could the Packers win with him at quarterback? Well, Houston did OK with T.J. Yates at the end of last season. Then again, the Texans also had one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks and a very stout defense that gave up just over 17 points per game.

Pass rush - Outside linebacker Clay Matthews was the defense’s only consistent pass rusher last season, and even the three-time Pro Bowler had stretches of ineffectiveness. GM Ted Thompson drafted Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy and Mike Daniels in an effort to rectify the problem. And while those three young players should help, it remains to be seen just how much. It’s not like Green Bay added Mario Williams or even Kamerion Wimbley in the offseason. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers needs at least one of the rookies to step up and become an impact pass rusher. A wild card to keep an eye on is fifth-round pick Terrell Manning. The former North Carolina State star has natural blitz ability.

Safeties - After Nick Collins’ neck injury in week 2, Morgan Burnett and Charlie Peprah spent the next 15 games trading off missed tackles and blown assignments. I’ll cut Burnett some slack. He was coming off ACL surgery and he played with a broken hand for months. The former Georgia Tech star should be much improved in ’12, but that’s only wishful thinking at this point. Peprah regressed last season after holding his own in 2010. He really struggled without Collins opposite him and without a consistent pass rush in front of him. He also struggled because offensive coordinators did a better job of taking advantage of his physical limitations. Capers desperately needs Burnett to blossom in his third season and for a young player like Jerron McMillian or Anthony Levine to step in and replace Peprah. Both things could happen, but if they don’t, the last line of defense will be a major problem once again.

Defensive coordinator - The defense had no business being as bad as it was last season – even with the personnel issues. Capers was painfully slow to adjust on a weekly basis. To be honest, he looked like a guy who spent too much time basking in the glow of the Super Bowl win and not enough time figuring out ways to combat offensive coordinators who spent the entire offseason studying how to beat his schemes. This will be a very pivotal season for Capers. His defenses in Carolina, Houston and Miami peaked early and then regressed. We’ll soon find out whether this is a coincidence or a trend. If it’s the latter, Green Bay may be looking for a new DC a lot sooner than expected.

Left tackle - The Packers will have a new player protecting the quarterback’s blind side for the first time since 2000. Chad Clifton is out and either Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod or Andrew Datko is in. All three young players have potential, but none is a proven commodity. Newhouse survived in 13 starts last season, but he wasn’t very good. The former TCU star gave up 10.5 sacks. Sherrod struggled mightily in training camp, but showed improvement later in the regular season. Unfortunately, his progress was halted by a severely broken leg. Datko is a natural pass protector, but he’s also a rookie with a shaky shoulder. The Packers don’t need a stud left tackle since Rodgers has such a quick release and such terrific mobility, but they can’t have a human turnstile at the position either.

May 192012
 
This image is still fresh in the minds of Packer fans

This image is still fresh in the minds of Packers fans

When Mark Murphy was asked on Thursday about retiring Brett Favre’s number, the team’s president and CEO replied, “Probably in a year or two. We want to do it at a time that’s meaningful to him.” Huh? Am I reading this correctly? Murphy wants to honor Favre “at a time that’s meaningful to him.” Hey Mark, how about honoring Favre at a time that won’t make Ted Thompson and hundreds of thousands of fans want to vomit! By my estimation, that would put the ceremony sometime around 2020.

Look, I’ll probably hold a grudge against Favre for longer than most. Maybe that’s because I was never a huge fan of his in the first place. I always rooted for the team, and never for a specific player. I cheered just as hard for Ed West as I did for Favre. I’m also of the belief that the organization doesn’t owe Favre anything. The Packers rescued him from oblivion and then paid him over $100 million. In return, he played  his ass off every week and won a lot of games, including Super Bowl 31. I never thought either side owed the other a thing – except respect. And that’s where Favre falls short, and the reason I’m in no hurry to see his No. 4 placed alongside 3, 14, 15, 66 and 92.

As far as I know, Tony Canadeo, Don Hutson, Bart Starr, Ray Nitschke and Reggie White never bashed the organization on television. As far as I know, none of those men ever manipulated their way onto the roster of  a division rival with the expressed desire to stick it to the Pack. And as far as I know, none of those men ever called the GM of a division rival to give him tips on how to beat the Packers. Favre did all of those things, and probably plenty more that we don’t know about. To be honest, I don’t think his number deserves to be placed anywhere near those others, but that’s probably not realistic. At some point, No. 4 will be retired. It just shouldn’t be any time soon.