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Apr 252012
 
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I have absolutely no idea which player the Green Bay Packers will choose in the first round, and anyone who tells you differently is lying. Ted Thompson is as tight-lipped as any general manager in the league and his staff is every bit as secretive. Therefore, nothing he does should really surprise anyone. In fact, I’d only be surprised if our picks actually turn out to be the same. So for whatever it’s worth, here’s my annual exercise in futility:

Picking so late in the first round is good if you’re a fan of the Packers, but it’s brutal if you’re also a writer trying to predict which player Thompson will select. This is no exaggeration – in the past week I’ve had nine different players going at 28. Offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler, defensive linemen Jerel Worthy, Devon Still, Brandon Thompson and Kendall Reyes and linebackers Courtney Upshaw, Dont’a Hightower, Shea McClellin and Andre Branch have all at one time or another been my choice. And in each case, doubt quickly crept in and I changed my mind. I’ve been the epitome of indecisiveness for the past week. In short, I’ve been to this particular mock draft what Mike Tice and the Vikings were to the real one in 2003.

On second (and sometimes third and fourth) thought, I came to the conclusion that Upshaw and Hightower aren’t going to be available and that Worthy, Still and Reyes simply don’t rush the quarterback well enough to merit being picked at No. 28. That left Zeitler, Thompson, McClellin and Branch. I dismissed Zeitler because of the position he plays. I just don’t see the Packers spending a first-round pick on an offensive lineman for the third year in a row. And while McClellin and Branch both look the part, I didn’t see enough on video to think either would be an impact player at the next level.

And then there was one. I originally dismissed Thompson because of the school he attended and his size. As I said before, there are more busts at Clemson than at Hooters. And at 6’2, 315, he projects more to nose tackle than end in a 3-4. But the more I watched him play, the less I cared about those things. What I saw was a powerful and explosive defensive lineman – basically the type of player Justin Harrell was supposed to be. The difference is that Thompson has a much cleaner medical history and far more potential as a pass rusher. In Green Bay, the 22-year-old would start immediately at defensive end and move inside in the nickel. The fact that he could also take snaps on the nose only makes him more valuable.

 

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY:

Clemson's Brandon Thompson would make sense for Packers

National Football Post’s Wes Bunting: A guy who should be able to come in and be a lineman who can win inside vs. the run game. Looks a bit limited as a pass rusher, but will be able to push the pocket and threaten gaps off the ball. A starting caliber 4-3 nose inside.

NFL.com: “Thompson brings value to the NFL in that he can play both defensive tackle or nose tackle at the next level. With his size and athletic ability, Thompson has been a disruptive force for Clemson. He plays stout against the run and will plug the hole well for an NFL team. He is able to find the ball as a defender and is effective after the snap in making plays in the backfield. He doesn’t bring a ton of pass-rush ability, but he will be able to serve as a strong presence up front. He has the talent to warrant a late first or early second-round pick.

Pro Football Weekly’s Nolan Nawrocki: “Thickly built, powerful, versatile defensive tackle with starter-caliber size, strength and quickness… Disruptive pass-rush skills – can win with quickness or bull his way to the quarterback…Is best-suited on the nose in a 4-3 paired with an attention-demanding three-technique, but also could draw interest as a 3-4 five-technique given his stellar run defense.”

Lindy’s: “Penetrates through gaps, often forcing running backs to elude him or the back end of the offensive lineman he’s pushing before they even reach the line…Explodes out of his stance, demonstrating a burst upfield to slip gaps and the lateral agility once past the line to chase down quarterbacks.”

 

Apr 132012
 
Plenty of depth at defensive tackle and outside linebacker

Plenty of depth at defensive tackle and outside linebacker

Predicting exactly which player general manager Ted Thompson will select in the first round is next to impossible, but his distinctive pattern after seven drafts makes it easier to at least narrow down the field of potential candidates. All seven of his previous first-round picks have played in either the Pac-12 (quarterback Aaron Rodgers and outside linebacker Clay Matthews), the Big Ten (linebacker A.J. Hawk and offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga), the SEC (defensive lineman Justin Harrell and offensive tackle Derek Sherrod) or the ACC (nose tackle B.J. Raji). Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but I seriously doubt it.

While Thompson has no problem choosing players from smaller conferences after round one, he sticks with the big boys when it comes to the money pick. Need is the other thing that should narrow down the field of candidates. Thompson always talks about taking the best available player regardless of position, but let’s be honest, he’ll be taking the best available defensive player regardless of position this year. He has no choice considering just how awful things were on that side of the ball in 2011.

OK, so let’s immediately exclude defensive players from major conferences that almost certainly won’t be around at 28. That list includes Michael Brockers, Fletcher Cox, Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram, Courtney Upshaw, Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick, Morris Claiborne and Mark Barron.Who might still be on the board? Jerel Worthy, Brandon Thompson, Devon Still, Dont’a Hightower, Luke Kuechly, Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry and Andre Branch. Notice that Dontari Poe, Kendall Reyes and Shea McClellin didn’t make either list because of where they played.

Some of the players I’ve listed as being available won’t be, but it’s a starting point. I’m going to cross out Kuechly because the Packers are fairly deep at inside linebacker. Ditto Hightower, even though he might be versatile enough to play on the outside in a 3-4 scheme. I’ll get rid of Thompson and Branch because they played at Clemson, and there are more busts at that school than there are at Hooters. Perry and Mercilus scare me a bit because they’re both projections from defensive end to outside linebacker. That increases the risk factor exponentially. And then there were two.

Flip a coin. Worthy has more natural talent than Still, but he was inconsistent in college and he’s a bit short for a 3-4 end. Still isn’t as explosive as Worthy, but he’s built for the position. He has ideal size (6’5″, 303) and is rock solid against the run. And while he probably won’t get 10 sacks, he’ll be a disruptive inside rusher. He’s also a pretty safe pick. After battling injuries as a freshman and sophomore, he’s been durable and dependable for the past two seasons. Adding Still would give coordinator Dom Capers the defensive end he desperately needs. In the loss to the Giants, one starter was a natural nose tackle and the other was a player who had already been cut once by the Packers.

Still is a very solid player, but he won’t dramatically improve the pass rush. That means the next pick should be someone who can provide pressure opposite Clay Matthews. After studying a handful of the second-tier outside linebackers, one player stood out from the rest when it came to getting after the quarterback. West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin isn’t going to be the total package right away, but he doesn’t have to be. One of the returning vets should be able to hold his own on early downs, and then Capers can turn Irvin loose in the nickel package. He’s extremely quick off the edge and he’s dangerous on inside stunts where his explosiveness is usually too much for a guard to handle.

1st round pickDEVON STILL

2nd round pick: BRUCE IRVIN