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Packers Say Goodbye To Peprah

 Posted by at 5:27 pm  6 Responses »
Jul 252012
 

The Green Bay Packers have released veteran safety Charlie Peprah one day before the first practice of training camp. The former Alabama star underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason, but this decision is more about performance than health. Peprah’s knee will get better; his play will not. Loyal readers of this blog should not be surprised by today’s announcement. Here’s what I wrote in April.

The release of Peprah leaves Morgan Burnett as the only player on the roster who has started a game at safety in the National Football League. Pro Bowl cornerback Charles Woodson is expected to move to safety in the base defense. Young veterans M.D. Jennings and Anthony Levine and fourth-round draft pick Jerron McMillian will compete in camp for the opportunity to get on the field in specialty packages.

Is Safety The New Outside Linebacker?

 Posted by at 10:49 am  7 Responses »
Jul 192012
 
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General manager Ted Thompson hasn’t done many things wrong since being hired by the Green Bay Packers in 2005, but waiting too long to acquire a stud outside linebacker to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Clay Matthews was a definite mistake. While the defense managed to perform well in 2010 with Brad Jones, Erik Walden and Frank Zombo taking turns in the starting lineup, that was unlikely to last – and it didn’t. Playing without a high-quality linebacker opposite Matthews obviously isn’t the only reason the defense is coming off an awful season (a league-record 5,237 passing yards allowed), but it was a major part of the problem.

Thompson finally addressed the problem by drafting Nick Perry in April, and while there’s no guarantee that the former USC star is going to find success in the NFL, at least he has the potential to be a difference maker. The same can’t be said of any of the players who started opposite Matthews in 2010 and 1011. That brings me to the point of this post. I feel the same way about the safety position opposite Morgan Burnett going into this season as I felt about the outside linebacker position opposite Matthews going into the past two seasons. I see it as a potentially big problem – a potentially big problem that Thompson hasn’t done nearly enough to fix.

Besides not having a second pass rusher, the other thing that killed the defense last season was the loss of Nick Collins in week 2. Slow-footed journeyman Charlie Peprah started the final 14 games, and while he amassed 94 tackles and 5 interceptions, he also missed 12 tackles, gave up 4.5 touchdowns and was exploited by clever, and some not so clever, offensive coordinators on a weekly basis. The defense survived with Peprah in the starting lineup for 12 games in 2010, but that’s only because the pass rush was fierce and Collins was lined up on the opposite side of the field.

Thompson needed to do more in the offseason than draft Jerron McMillian in the fourth round. The former Maine star might become a solid starter in the NFL, but the odds of that happening this season aren’t very good. The odds are better that either Peprah, M.D. Jennings or Anthony Levine will open the season opposite Burnett. Look, I realize that the coaches seem to like the two former undrafted free agents and I know this organization is all about developing young players, but I can’t help think of Walden, Jones and Zombo when I think of Peprah, Jennings and Levine.

If I were Thompson, I would’ve signed a veteran in the offseason. Sean Jones would’ve made sense as an inexpensive free agent. Heck, I’d take the currently unemployed Jim Leonhard (if healthy) over Peprah as well. But that’s probably not going to happen. So can the defense get back on track with substandard play at one of the safety positions? It could, but only if the pass rush improves greatly and Burnett plays better than he did a year ago. Otherwise, the last line of defense figures to be just as big an albatross this season as the right outside linebacker was in 2011.

Even Packers Have Some Concerns

 Posted by at 7:44 am  10 Responses »
May 222012
 
Unproven Graham Harrell figures to be the backup QB in 2012

Unproven Graham Harrell figures to be the backup QB

The Packers have won 29 games, including a Super Bowl, in the past two seasons. They are also one of the youngest and deepest teams in the league. But that doesn’t mean the defending NFC North champs are without flaws. Here are five areas of concern heading into 2012:

Backup quarterback - While it’s true that most teams would be in big trouble if their starting quarterback got seriously injured, it’s also true that most teams have a more proven backup than Graham Harrell. Maybe the former Texas Tech star will develop into the next Matt Flynn, but I could see him just as easily performing like Caleb Hanie. In fact, I think that’s a more likely scenario. Harrell is a smart player, but his arm strength is extremely limited. Could the Packers win with him at quarterback? Well, Houston did OK with T.J. Yates at the end of last season. Then again, the Texans also had one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks and a very stout defense that gave up just over 17 points per game.

Pass rush - Outside linebacker Clay Matthews was the defense’s only consistent pass rusher last season, and even the three-time Pro Bowler had stretches of ineffectiveness. GM Ted Thompson drafted Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy and Mike Daniels in an effort to rectify the problem. And while those three young players should help, it remains to be seen just how much. It’s not like Green Bay added Mario Williams or even Kamerion Wimbley in the offseason. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers needs at least one of the rookies to step up and become an impact pass rusher. A wild card to keep an eye on is fifth-round pick Terrell Manning. The former North Carolina State star has natural blitz ability.

Safeties - After Nick Collins’ neck injury in week 2, Morgan Burnett and Charlie Peprah spent the next 15 games trading off missed tackles and blown assignments. I’ll cut Burnett some slack. He was coming off ACL surgery and he played with a broken hand for months. The former Georgia Tech star should be much improved in ’12, but that’s only wishful thinking at this point. Peprah regressed last season after holding his own in 2010. He really struggled without Collins opposite him and without a consistent pass rush in front of him. He also struggled because offensive coordinators did a better job of taking advantage of his physical limitations. Capers desperately needs Burnett to blossom in his third season and for a young player like Jerron McMillian or Anthony Levine to step in and replace Peprah. Both things could happen, but if they don’t, the last line of defense will be a major problem once again.

Defensive coordinator - The defense had no business being as bad as it was last season – even with the personnel issues. Capers was painfully slow to adjust on a weekly basis. To be honest, he looked like a guy who spent too much time basking in the glow of the Super Bowl win and not enough time figuring out ways to combat offensive coordinators who spent the entire offseason studying how to beat his schemes. This will be a very pivotal season for Capers. His defenses in Carolina, Houston and Miami peaked early and then regressed. We’ll soon find out whether this is a coincidence or a trend. If it’s the latter, Green Bay may be looking for a new DC a lot sooner than expected.

Left tackle - The Packers will have a new player protecting the quarterback’s blind side for the first time since 2000. Chad Clifton is out and either Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod or Andrew Datko is in. All three young players have potential, but none is a proven commodity. Newhouse survived in 13 starts last season, but he wasn’t very good. The former TCU star gave up 10.5 sacks. Sherrod struggled mightily in training camp, but showed improvement later in the regular season. Unfortunately, his progress was halted by a severely broken leg. Datko is a natural pass protector, but he’s also a rookie with a shaky shoulder. The Packers don’t need a stud left tackle since Rodgers has such a quick release and such terrific mobility, but they can’t have a human turnstile at the position either.

Peprah’s Future Appears Tenuous

 Posted by at 10:08 am  4 Responses »
Apr 042012
 
Veteran safety really struggled last season

Charlie Peprah’s future with the Packers isn’t as big a story as the futures of Chad Clifton and Donald Driver, but it’s every bit as shaky. The veteran safety is coming off a dismal season and he’s scheduled to make $1.225 million in 2011. And in the National Football League, poor performance plus a relatively high salary often equals a pink slip.

That said, there’s no reason to make a move yet. Pro Bowler Nick Collins’ status remains up in the air following neck surgery and the draft is still a few weeks away. That means the only healthy safeties on the roster right now are Peprah, Morgan Burnett, M.D. Jennings and Anthony Levine. That’s hardly an impressive group. Burnett started all 17 games last season, but he was no better than average. And while the former Georgia Tech star should be much improved another year removed from ACL surgery, that’s just conjecture at this point. Jennings and Levine are a couple of non-drafted free agents who have yet to play a down on defense in the NFL. Both youngsters have potential, but it would be foolish to rely on either one in 2011.

That’s why general manager Ted Thompson will almost certainly draft at least one safety later this month. Unfortunately, the talent at this position isn’t very impressive. Alabama’s Mark Barron is a stud who should go in the first round, but after that, the pickings are extremely slim. Notre Dame’s Harrison Smith looked good at the Combine, but he struggled to cover quick receivers at the collegiate level. After those two, there’s another handful of players who could potentially hear their names called on day two, but each one has as many detractors as supporters.

So unless Thompson selects Barron at 28, there’s no guarantee he’s going to find a safety capable of contributing on defense in 2011. That’s why there’s no reason to get rid of Peprah just yet. For all of his faults, he did start 15 games for a Super Bowl-winning defense. Of course, he had a terrific pass rush in front of him and one of the best safeties in the league opposite him that season. Neither is likely to be the case in 2011. But things should be better. Burnett will have 17 more games worth of experience under his belt and Thompson seems hell-bent on improving the pass rush. He’s already signed Anthony Hargrove and it would be a shock if he doesn’t address this need early in the draft.

These are the reasons I expect Peprah to remain a member of the Packers for at least a little while longer – perhaps even through the end of training camp. He’s a decent security blanket to have around just in case Collins is forced to retire or is released, Jennings and Levine don’t develop as expected and the draft doesn’t pan out. But at some point between now and the beginning of September, Peprah’s very limited athletic ability and his inflated salary are probably going to get him released. If they don’t, then neither the coaching staff nor Thompson did their jobs in the offseason.

PEPRAH WAS SIMPLY A STOPGAP

 Posted by at 2:06 pm  4 Responses »
Jul 152011
 
Peprah will probably return to a backup role this season

Peprah will probably return to a backup role this season

Charlie Peprah should fire his agent. The veteran safety recently signed a two-year contract worth $2.25 million – great money in the real world, but chump change in the world of the National Football League. I bring this up because of a story written by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders. In it, the author ranked safeties by something called Best Pass Tackle Stop Rate – which is defined in the article as “the total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play be the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down” (I’m getting a headache). By now, I guess you can figure out which safety came in at No. 1 in 2010?

I bet you didn’t think Peprah was that good last season. Well, you’re right, he wasn’t. The former Alabama standout proved to a godsend after rookie Morgan Burnett suffered a season-ending knee injury in week 4, but he never played like anything resembling an élite safety. And while there’s no question he brought physicality and reliability to the secondary, he also missed too many tackles (second on the team with 16) and his lack of athleticism was painfully obvious on the rare occasions when savvy defensive coordinator Dom Capers couldn’t keep him from being isolated against quick wide receivers.

As for Burnett, he’ll probably never be a physical player, but his coverage skills are unique for a safety. The former Georgia Tech star is very athletic, fluid and agile. He’s also able to transition smoothly out of breaks with very little wasted movement. With a healthy Burnett, the Packers’ nickel package should be the best in the league. Imagine how difficult it will be for opposing quarterbacks to find open receivers against five such athletic defensive backs – especially if the pass rushers do their jobs.

OK, back to Best Pass Tackle Stop Rate. After Peprah, the remainder of the top 10 consisted of Jordan Babineaux (Seattle), Jon McGraw (Kansas City), Sean Considine (Jacksonville), Deon Grant (Giants), Mike Mitchell (Oakland), Gerald Sensabaugh (Dallas), Chinedum Ndukwe (Cincinnati), Louis Delmas (Detroit) and Adrian Wilson (Arizona). That’s not exactly a Who’s Who of safeties.

This post isn’t meant to denigrate either the play of Peprah or the work done by Football Outsiders. The former is a very good backup safety and and the latter is one of the most unique football sites on the internet. This post is meant to show just how meaningless certain statistics can be when analyzing NFL players. There’s a reason Thompson offered such a modest contract, and more importantly, there’s a reason why it was accepted. So while Peprah may always have a place in the hearts of Cheeseheads everywhere for the job he did filling in for Burnett and helping the Packers win their fourth Lombardi Trophy, his place next season will more than likely be back on the bench – where he belongs.