General manager Ted Thompson hasn’t done many things wrong since being hired by the Green Bay Packers in 2005, but waiting too long to acquire a stud outside linebacker to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Clay Matthews was a definite mistake. While the defense managed to perform well in 2010 with Brad Jones, Erik Walden and Frank Zombo taking turns in the starting lineup, that was unlikely to last – and it didn’t. Playing without a high-quality linebacker opposite Matthews obviously isn’t the only reason the defense is coming off an awful season (a league-record 5,237 passing yards allowed), but it was a major part of the problem.
Thompson finally addressed the problem by drafting Nick Perry in April, and while there’s no guarantee that the former USC star is going to find success in the NFL, at least he has the potential to be a difference maker. The same can’t be said of any of the players who started opposite Matthews in 2010 and 1011. That brings me to the point of this post. I feel the same way about the safety position opposite Morgan Burnett going into this season as I felt about the outside linebacker position opposite Matthews going into the past two seasons. I see it as a potentially big problem – a potentially big problem that Thompson hasn’t done nearly enough to fix.
Besides not having a second pass rusher, the other thing that killed the defense last season was the loss of Nick Collins in week 2. Slow-footed journeyman Charlie Peprah started the final 14 games, and while he amassed 94 tackles and 5 interceptions, he also missed 12 tackles, gave up 4.5 touchdowns and was exploited by clever, and some not so clever, offensive coordinators on a weekly basis. The defense survived with Peprah in the starting lineup for 12 games in 2010, but that’s only because the pass rush was fierce and Collins was lined up on the opposite side of the field.
Thompson needed to do more in the offseason than draft Jerron McMillian in the fourth round. The former Maine star might become a solid starter in the NFL, but the odds of that happening this season aren’t very good. The odds are better that either Peprah, M.D. Jennings or Anthony Levine will open the season opposite Burnett. Look, I realize that the coaches seem to like the two former undrafted free agents and I know this organization is all about developing young players, but I can’t help think of Walden, Jones and Zombo when I think of Peprah, Jennings and Levine.
If I were Thompson, I would’ve signed a veteran in the offseason. Sean Jones would’ve made sense as an inexpensive free agent. Heck, I’d take the currently unemployed Jim Leonhard (if healthy) over Peprah as well. But that’s probably not going to happen. So can the defense get back on track with substandard play at one of the safety positions? It could, but only if the pass rush improves greatly and Burnett plays better than he did a year ago. Otherwise, the last line of defense figures to be just as big an albatross this season as the right outside linebacker was in 2011.
If I’m not mistaken, this is Burnett’s first offseason in the system, due to being a rookie, then having the lockout the next year. I think he’ll make a big step forward.
It seemed to me that a lot of the snafus in the secondary were miscommunications, which did not happen between Peprah and Collins the year before. Therefore I suspect that as Burnett is no longer a “rookie” and does have an offseason under his belt, that should improve.
While I don’t think the safety position is as bad as the OLB has been in the past few years, at least Thompson did spend a quality draft pick on a safety this year, I agree that it is the thinnest area on the team.
What I find interesting is that when Thompson had a similar situation on the OL, a hole with no quality back-up, he went out and signed Jeff Saturday. It would seem that at some positions he values experience more than athleticism but others he is willing to roll the dice with youth. What surprises me is that Safety isn’t a position that he would go with a vet. I guess Thompson has done this before when he replaced Sharper with a raw & untested Collins but still – you have a good point, it does seem like an unnecessary risk.
Great analysis once again. But somehow lost from the equation is the fact that by addressing OLB, and just as importantly DL, TT is making average S play a little more acceptable. It’s a gamble to some extent but if you’re going to devote limited resources to various holes, “everything starts in the trenches”.
Yes, replacing a Nick Collins doesn’t usually happen overnight. Peprah is not the answer and we should move on. They like the three youngsters behind him. If time proves that these three aren’t up to NFL starter standards, next year we pick up a nice safety in R1 or R2. Remember Aaron Rouse, another TT mistake, should have been the guy to take over for Collins but that was not to be. TT made lots of mistakes at the S position opposite of Collins before finally getting Burnett. TT’s track record of filling defensive holes on the cheap is poor at best. I’m hoping our long-term starter already is on the roster but I’m not betting on it. TT is about 2 for 10 at the S position since signing up as GM.
I have no real complaints about how TT went about filling holes in the off-season. IMO, the team had four positions with major concerns heading into the off season… C, OLB, DT and S. Three of those four positions have been addressed, while S has been largely ignored. More than anything, that’s due to a lack of decent options. I don’t particularly expect McMillan or Jennings to be the long term answer at S, but at least they could surprise. Bringing in someone like Sean Jones just replaces Peprah with someone equally limited, and Jones wouldn’t know the defense.
Of course Thompson like every other GM makes mistakes but the failure to address OLB after the 2010 season was a minor one IMO. As you mentioned the trio of Jones, Walden and Zombo played well enough for the Packers defense to record impressive stats and more important, for the team to win a title. IMO it was not unreasonable to think either Walden or Zombo, who were both new to the Packers, would take a step forward significant enough to repeat. Even if Thompson recognized the problem, was a player available, either through the draft or free agency who would have likely solved the problem (at the time, not in hindsight)?
Regarding the safety position, isn’t Woodson their ace in the hole? If recent acquisitions Hayward, House, or Shields (if he commits to tackling) can fill the traditional outside CB spot, wouldn’t Woodson would be freed up to play opposite Burnett in the base. I’m also wondering if Capers may field a D backfield with Burnett as the only “pure” safety in his many sub packages.
Remember, signing free agents is not “free.” They can cost a future draft pick or picks, under the NFL’s nebulous formula for the awarding of compensatory picks, on top of the obvious – taking up cap space and using cash. You only have four assets for acquiring players – draft picks, cash, cap space, and other players. These four assets need to be preserved and spent wisely. When you sign a free agent, you’re using three of the four assets (because quality free agents are not cheap). If it’s not someone who will clearly contribute more than what you have – and I don’t think Leonhard or Jones are – then I’m glad we don’t spend those three assets.
On the other hand, TT must think center was not sufficiently covered with Dietrich-Smith. I was a little surprised with this move, but the actions speak loudly in that case.