The Green Bay Packers will have to spend at least $200 million in the next six to 18 months to re-sign receiver Greg Jennings and extend quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews. In order to keep those three stars, general manager Ted Thompson will almost certainly have to let other good players go. For example, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see ascending left guard T.J. Lang sign elsewhere as an unrestricted free agent in 2013. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker A.J. Hawk were released or forced to take massive pay cuts following this season. But there’s another player whose shaky future in Green Bay will definitely surprise you. Two years after agreeing to a five-year extension worth just over $38 million, cornerback Tramon Williams could very well be on his way out.
Williams parlayed a breakthrough season in 2010 into that lucrative deal, but he struggled in 2011 after injuring his right shoulder on opening night. Normally you wouldn’t be worried about a shoulder injury suffered in September lingering into the next season, but after reading a recent article on FoxSportsWisconsin.com, it’s hard not to be concerned. “We did strength tests on my shoulder (in early June) and it was at about 50 percent when they tested,” Williams told Paul Imig. “It probably was worse during the season. It was bad. I hadn’t done anything on it for a while, trying to heal it up a little bit. I started my rehab process, did that for a couple weeks, then we did the strength test to see where we were. They tested my strong arm, which is my left arm, and then the right arm, and my right arm was significantly weaker than my left arm. And this is my dominant arm, my right arm, so it was weak.”
A weak right shoulder greatly limits Williams’ ability to be physical with wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. And being physical with wide receivers is one of the things that made the former Louisiana Tech star so successful in 2010. The Packers are obviously hoping that the shoulder will continue to get stronger in the coming months. Increased strength, along with a (hopefully) more effective pass rush, should allow Williams to perform better than he did a year ago. But he’ll probably have to return to his Pro Bowl form of 2010 in order to justify the huge raise he’s scheduled to get in 2013. And based on the information in Imig’s story, it’s fair to question whether that’s possible.
Williams is scheduled to make a base salary of $2.3 million this season. That number jumps to $5.9 million ($7.4 million against the cap) in 2013. That’s the type of money a team pays for a star player. Releasing Williams next offseason would save the team $5.9 million in real money and $5 million against the cap. That might not seem like a lot, but every dollar will count when it comes to getting contracts done with Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews. It’s also important to remember that Thompson will have to deal with Jermichael Finley and B.J. Raji in the not too distant future.
Besides his contract, there are other things working against Williams. One is his age. He’ll turn 30 next March, and while Woodson has been defying Father Time for years, the majority of corners – even 100% healthy ones – begin to show signs of decline around that birthday. Another thing working against Williams is the potential depth at the position. Sam Shields looked like a budding star in 2010. Thompson traded up in the second round to draft Casey Hayward in April. And the coaches have been heaping praise on Davon House throughout the offseason. All three of those players are under 26. If at least two of the them prove to be legitimate, it’s difficult to imagine Williams returning in 2013 unless he regains the form that made him arguably the second-best cornerback in the league in 2010.
Peripheral nerves heal, it’s just a slow process. Think maybe a milimeter a day on a good day. Being a pro athlete, Tramon probably knows alot of stuff to promote that, but it’s still a slow process.
Michael, I appreciate your always pragmatic and GM-like view of the team. Agree that this is possible. But like Nerd, I think after reading the FoxSports article — and this earlier one from the Journal Sentinel http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/willing-to-shoulder-the-burden-d45lcis-157107735.html — the takeaway is that Williams will be fine..at some point. If he really played at 15% strength last season, even an improvement to 50% is a significant one. Let’s hope he’s even better by September, and that an improved Shields, House and addition of Hayward make the CB position overall a strength.
Thats exactly why James Jones needs to go, sure he only counts 2.8 mil against the salary cap this year but when you can keep Borel and Gurley for around 500k, thats 2.3 mil that can go to the guys you want to keep long term.
If Charles Woodson can play as well as he has in his early 30s than there no reason to think that Williams can’t do the same. If anyone were to be cut for salary cap purposes nect season it would be Chuck and AJ Hawk IMO.
The rookie minimum salary is $390K. The benefit would be $2M, roughly the same as I made in the argument below re Kuhn.
I was okay w/ TT using Jones as trade bait to move up in the draft. Since he played at a position of strength he offered the most in return for the loss incurred. Now that the draft is over I don’t want JJ going anywhere, he’s better than most fans give him credit for.
Besides the we’re one injury from turning a position of strength to a weakness argument, here’s another scenario for keeping JJ. Finley had a good yr even w/ the drops. If he, JJ, and Cobb improve and Gurley and/or Borel et al rookies show they belong a case could be made not to resign Greg Jennings, who as he turns 30 will want approx 4 yrs $48M w/ 25M+ guaranteed. Maybe TT tags and plays him or what if a team offers a 1st and 5th for a tag and trade. I’m not advocating this just making the case of how a great player like GJ and a fan favorite like Kuhn may be sacrificed to resign CM3, Raji, Lang et al including AR. And how JJ could become a more important cog in this offensive juggernaut.
If contact slows the healing process then I hope Tramon is kept away from all hitting until he plays the 1st quarter of the 4th preseason game. He’s a pro and will be ready to go vs the 49ers. He can still get in his conditioning and can do mirror work vs the WR’s in practice. Besides, Shields, House, Hayward, and Ross can use the reps.
Another vet who is in a similar boat this year is John Kuhn. He turns 30 in Sept, coming off an injury, and has a $2.3M salary this year. Nic Cooper rec’d some props this offseason. If he excels in camp TT could look to use the almost $2M savings towards one of the upcoming contracts. And maybe the TE’s are groomed to play more H-Back to help pick up the slack.
For some reason I think Lang (24 yrs old) gets a deal done. If he and Newhouse (23) can make the 2nd year jump what an O-Line the Packers could have w/ Bulaga (23) and old man Sitton (26).
I’m sure they’ll have some special padding for Tramon’s arm.
Tramon is probably safe this year even if his shoulder doesn’t regain strength at the beginning. The problem is nerve damage and that heals differently than muscle or ligaments and can’t be fixed w/ surgery. It just has to heal on its own and there is no timetable for it. It wouldn’t surprise me if they PUP Tramon to start the year and give the nerve damage time to heal, then deal w/ it when he has to go on IR or the roster. If he doesn’t get the strength up, he is pretty useless and would severely limit our options in coverages, just like last year.
If the shoulder regains its strength all is well, if not IR him and give him the year to see what happens. Love Tramon, but last year he was a BIG reason, IMO the biggest reason, why the pass D was incredibly horrible, we couldn’t play press coverage w/ him in the lineup. I applaud him trying to play thru it, but that can’t be the case again this year. If his shoulder never gets 100% strength back he will be in serious danger of losing his place w/ the Packers.
I don’t think 30 is the age when CB start to lose it… This isn’t like RB where they get pounded on! He probably can play till 32 or 33 yrs old, easily at a Pro Bowl level if his shoulder/nerve damage heals and gets to 100%.
While there are exceptions, Ted tends to dump guys over 30. As the NFL is generally a young man’s league, this is very likely a wise strategy. Sadly, age and injury catch with with guys, and Williams appears to be yet another example.
Some might cite the extended, charmed professional life of Charles Woodson as evidence that players can thrive past 30. But Woodson’s case is not the rule; he’s something of a freak, possessing the sort of rare talent that was on display even back in his college days. Some of that has eroded but he was still be an exceptional player (although those days, too, seem at or near their end).
Tramon is a fine CB, but he is no Charles Woodson. So I agree with Michael’s notion that Williams might be playing his final season for the Packers.
$5.9 million in 2013 dollars, against the contract extensions being signed this year and likely signed following the 2012 season will be the market price for competent DB play, not a star player. Outside of the Hawk deal, that’s the beauty of Russ Ball and Ted Thompson: They stay ahead of the market so futures are bargains. People complained about Crosby and Jones as well. Guess what, those contracts are now cheap in 2012 and likely 2013 dollars for veteran players.
This is sad news indeed. To lose twp Pro Bowl DBs in their prime in the same season is a tremendous blow, especially when combined with the worst pass rush in the NFL. This is second guessing I suppose, but if the Packers knew Tramon had suffered severe nerve damage, they should have shut him down. I wish Tramon the best in his attempt to heal and return to his Pro Bowl form of 2010.
If we let Woodson go after this year, that is three great DBs lost in two seasons.
I’m in the camp of we will probably need to let Woodson, Hawk, Raji and Jennings go in FA. The jury is out on TW, depending on his recovery. TW strikes me as a young 30.
Why Raji? His short arms make him neither a force vs the run or pass. Why pay him big bucks? Yes, he’s a good player with quickness and strength (dancing bear type) but he’s far from being a great NT. And that is how how will want to be paid. His rookie year was marred by an ankle injury. He stepped up nicely in the SB year. Last year he became almost a joke. He would have to have a big year this year for me to pay him a $35MM contract.
Jennings on the other hand is a great player. And still young enough to be in his prime and at a position that often has longevity. I’d hate to lose him but given our depth, we could afford to play w/o him. Another reason why it is dumb to waste a roster spot on DD this year. We could be down to 3 WRs next year.
Woodson is obviously not the player he was and I expect to see further decline this year. He’s still a starter-quality player but after this year, he will be a luxury we can no longer afford.
AROD, CMIII and maybe GJ get all the money. Lang stays. I’m divided on Finley. Prior to his knee injury he looked super. Last year he failed to carry his weight. There’s still a chance he had an off year and will rebound this year. if he doesn’t, then expect him to play it safe the following year, while he’s looking for his next big payday. if Finley has a big year in 2012, if I was TT, I’d him to an extension right there and then to avoid the lame duck syndrome (repeat of 2011).
If TT is thinking about letting Raji go, he should try to trade him during TC when a team loses their starting NT to injury. We can’t afford to have both Raji and Pickett sucking in big $$$ and providing little or no pass rush.
One of the prices of drafting well and making incredible UDFA acquisitions is there comes a time when you can’t pay them all. No question you pay Rodgers and Matthews coming up. Unfortunately, that might mean Lang or Jennings walks out of town or a guy like Tramon is cut. It sucks but it is what it is. I didn’t realize Tramon was pushing 30 either.
Keep in mind, the Salary Cap will stagnate for the next year or two, then continue to expand. This was a concession on the part of the Players’ Association during the labor impasse. They wanted a bigger cap to make it seem like they were making negotiating strides, but they sort of borrowed against the next few years in that regard.
I’d agree that if Williams struggles as badly in 2012 as he did in 2011, GB would have to look at re-structuring that deal. If he does struggle in 2012, I expect Williams would cooperate. A lot would also depend on how players like House, Hayward and Shields perform in 2012.
That being said, I’d say it’s a bit of an overstatement to say that Williams is on shaky ground in GB. 5.9M is a reasonable number for a CB of avg quality. If Williams meets that standard in 2012, he is safe for 2013. If Williams rebounds to anything close to his 2010 form, that 5.9M salary for 2013 will be a big time bargain.
I recently read where Williams was back to lifting 90 to 100 pound dumbells. Considering he used to train with 120lbs that would sound encouraging. If that’s the case, I would think he’s closer to the 2010 Tramon than the 2011. No matter what, House and Shields need to step up. I think Hayward will be a great addition but may take a while for him. Anyone one of these guys HAS to be a better option than Bush. I watched that week 17 game on NFL network yesterday on a replay and I got mad all over again watching Bush TRY to cover! He’s a absolute horror show when it comes to coverage. If Bush is in the game playing a CB position ahead of these guys, then the Packers are in serious trouble. These guys have to be better options at corner!