Unproven Graham Harrell figures to be the backup QB
The Packers have won 29 games, including a Super Bowl, in the past two seasons. They are also one of the youngest and deepest teams in the league. But that doesn’t mean the defending NFC North champs are without flaws. Here are five areas of concern heading into 2012:
Backup quarterback - While it’s true that most teams would be in big trouble if their starting quarterback got seriously injured, it’s also true that most teams have a more proven backup than Graham Harrell. Maybe the former Texas Tech star will develop into the next Matt Flynn, but I could see him just as easily performing like Caleb Hanie. In fact, I think that’s a more likely scenario. Harrell is a smart player, but his arm strength is extremely limited. Could the Packers win with him at quarterback? Well, Houston did OK with T.J. Yates at the end of last season. Then again, the Texans also had one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks and a very stout defense that gave up just over 17 points per game.
Pass rush - Outside linebacker Clay Matthews was the defense’s only consistent pass rusher last season, and even the three-time Pro Bowler had stretches of ineffectiveness. GM Ted Thompson drafted Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy and Mike Daniels in an effort to rectify the problem. And while those three young players should help, it remains to be seen just how much. It’s not like Green Bay added Mario Williams or even Kamerion Wimbley in the offseason. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers needs at least one of the rookies to step up and become an impact pass rusher. A wild card to keep an eye on is fifth-round pick Terrell Manning. The former North Carolina State star has natural blitz ability.
Safeties - After Nick Collins’ neck injury in week 2, Morgan Burnett and Charlie Peprah spent the next 15 games trading off missed tackles and blown assignments. I’ll cut Burnett some slack. He was coming off ACL surgery and he played with a broken hand for months. The former Georgia Tech star should be much improved in ’12, but that’s only wishful thinking at this point. Peprah regressed last season after holding his own in 2010. He really struggled without Collins opposite him and without a consistent pass rush in front of him. He also struggled because offensive coordinators did a better job of taking advantage of his physical limitations. Capers desperately needs Burnett to blossom in his third season and for a young player like Jerron McMillian or Anthony Levine to step in and replace Peprah. Both things could happen, but if they don’t, the last line of defense will be a major problem once again.
Defensive coordinator - The defense had no business being as bad as it was last season – even with the personnel issues. Capers was painfully slow to adjust on a weekly basis. To be honest, he looked like a guy who spent too much time basking in the glow of the Super Bowl win and not enough time figuring out ways to combat offensive coordinators who spent the entire offseason studying how to beat his schemes. This will be a very pivotal season for Capers. His defenses in Carolina, Houston and Miami peaked early and then regressed. We’ll soon find out whether this is a coincidence or a trend. If it’s the latter, Green Bay may be looking for a new DC a lot sooner than expected.
Left tackle - The Packers will have a new player protecting the quarterback’s blind side for the first time since 2000. Chad Clifton is out and either Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod or Andrew Datko is in. All three young players have potential, but none is a proven commodity. Newhouse survived in 13 starts last season, but he wasn’t very good. The former TCU star gave up 10.5 sacks. Sherrod struggled mightily in training camp, but showed improvement later in the regular season. Unfortunately, his progress was halted by a severely broken leg. Datko is a natural pass protector, but he’s also a rookie with a shaky shoulder. The Packers don’t need a stud left tackle since Rodgers has such a quick release and such terrific mobility, but they can’t have a human turnstile at the position either.
There is nothing extraordinary or even above average about this team other than its starting QB and its WR corps. As great as CMIII is, an offense can take him out of the game if the Pack has no counter to him. And, since the forced departure of CJ, they have had none. Thus, as long as AR stays healthy and avoids a slump, the Pack should continue to win its share of high scoring affairs. The best we can hope for on defense this year is a climb from the bottom to the middle. That will take many vets who regressed in 2011 to return to their form and it will take significant contributions from this rookie class. Neither of which is certain. I agree wholeheartedly with your comments about Capers. Another down year for the defense and the Packers should look for a new DC. Throw in the fact that the Bears and Lions are pointing to big years and I think it would be whistling past the graveyard for Packer fans to assume that the past will be prologue as to the Pack’s W-L record or winning the division. I expect a 3-way dogfight to the finish. And even if the Pack makes the playoffs again, I remain concerned that we are not built to win outside in the cold in January. Despite all this, this is a great time to be a Packer fan and I look forward to another great season, win, lose or draw. Now, if Perry or Worthy were to emerge as a superstar in his rookie season, that would be a horse of a different color.
Nothing above average? It was the teams depth that won that SB. The safeties have a lot to prove but Woodson, even as old as he is, Williams and Shields are solid corners. Shields needs to tackle and if he improves this secondary can be solid. The offensive line with the exception of Newhouse is pretty damn good with the possibility of two pro-bowl players in that group. With as bad as you just ripped the Packers and then turn around and say it’s a great time to be a fan? By mid season the Packers Defense will be just fine and finish with a top 8 defense. I’ve said the same thing about Capers, that common knowledge but he’s also been a NFL coach for over 30 years. What Thompson gave him to work with last year was a joke. He just needed a few players other than 6th and 7th round players to plug in!
The middle three concerns are make or brake issues w/ the Packers. Those will determine how far this team goes. I don’t understand how this team regressed so badly last year on the defense side of the ball. I believe that Capers knows what he has to do and will make some major changes. It will be interesting to see if reports come out of the OTAs of new schemes developed by Capers to keep the other team off-balanced.
What’s your take on the long term potential of BJ Coleman, michael?
He seems like with some grooming, he could be a great backup for us going into the next 4 years as he matures.
I’ve never seen him play, so I’ll reserve judgement until I see him at training camp.
Harrell’s situation mirrors Flynn’s 1st year. MM/TT think he can be an NFL QB but just needs seasoning. So they roll the dice and hope Harrell isn’t needed before at worst mid season. I do think MM can adapt his O to play to Harrell’s limitations.
The added depth of the rookies (incl Guy) and the FA’s will help keep the returning DL fresher which will help the pass rush. MM or Capers talked about getting more players on the field so I picture more sub pckg’s which could bring pressure from the ILB’s, not only Manning but Smith and Lattimore.
Apparently Capers and MM figured out in their off season review that Capers got too predictable in his play calling. So I expect a more varied D which will help across the board. Maybe this is what caused his previous D’s to regress.
I don’t think we’ve given enough credence to the effect on the secondary of not only losing Collins but Tramon’s injury, Shields lack of an off season program, and Burnett’s injury and him still being a rookie.
I was surprised they cut Chris Campbell. But it may speak to what the team feels about Newhouse, Sherrod’s recovery, and the prospects of Datko.
Burnett is getting an offseason in the system this year. He’ll be fine.
As for Harrell, MM has shown the ability to increase his QBs’ arm strength. If he didn’t think he could develop Harrell, they’d have dumped him imo.
Great article though, keep up the great work!
Michael, I agree with your assessment but I have one caveat, several players regressed last year including Shields, Zombo, Walden and Peprah. Williams was hurt and as we all saw the PR was terrible. I do believe that the players who tailed off will regress to the norm and have typical seasons, I also expect the pass rush to be better. The division will also be better and as another poster said a dog fight is more likely than a cakewalk. That said there is a lot of potential both on offense and defense to have a great year. Should the GB D rebound to post 47 sacks (as it did in 10)then this will be a scary team, if they post 29 like last year could be a long season>
They’ll definitely be closer to 47 than 29.
Let’s shoot for 47. Although sacks don’t tell the whole story. CJ was famous for applying pressure i.e., he didn’t get the sack but he forced the QB to get rid of the ball earlier than he wanted to. If Nick Perry was the right choice, our pass rush should be OK again. Not good however, that first comments on him from OTAs by observers is “stiff”. May mean nothing or it may be harbinger of him really being a 4-3 DE type as opposed to a 3-4OLB. Of course, the “elephant” 3-4 lurks as a possibility as well.