Smith is one of a number of second-year players that could step up for the Packers in 2012
A couple of things absolutely must happen if the Packers are going to improve on defense in 2012. One, general manager Ted Thompson must come up with an impact player in this month’s draft. And two, B.J. Raji and Tramon Williams must bounce back from disappointing seasons. Another thing that would really help – but isn’t as essential or as likely – is for one or two of last year’s little-used rookies to become contributors.
It’s impossible to know in early April whether the draft will produce another Clay Matthews or whether Raji and Williams will return to their 2010 form, but after re-watching all four preseason games from last season, it isn’t impossible to take a crack at predicting which second-year players might be ready to make a name for themselves. So with no further adieu, here are my top five young defenders to watch:
1) D.J. SMITH – Last year’s sixth-round pick started three games at inside linebacker and there was little, if any, dropoff at the position. The former Appalachian State star proved to be a breath of fresh air on a defensive unit that stunk to high heaven in 2011. Along with solid production (27 total tackles, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed), he brought quickness, physicality and energy to an otherwise slowish, soft and sluggish unit. Of course, Smith was far from perfect. He missed some assignments and he over pursued the ball too often. Still, he did enough good things to make many fans and members of media question why A.J. Hawk and his bloated base salary ($4.7M) are still around.
2) JAMARI LATTIMORE – Fellow rookie Vic So’oto got all the headlines last summer, but I liked Lattimore better from day one. The undrafted free agent from Middle Tennessee State was too small (6’2, 230) to be used at outside linebacker as a rookie, but he did enough good things to stick around on the 53-man roster all season. With a frame that probably won’t be able to carry more than 240 pounds, it wasn’t a shock to hear coach Mike McCarthy mention the possibility of giving Lattimore a look inside during the upcoming mini-camps and OTAs. His size wouldn’t be quite as big (pardon the pun) an issue there and he’d certainly be better in coverage than any of the returning vets.
3) LAWRENCE GUY - It’s easy to forget that last year’s second seventh-round pick is still on the team. That’s because the former Arizona State star suffered a concussion early in camp and was never heard from again. Guy looks the part of a 3-4 end, and he played like a legitimate prospect as a sophomore. He showed enough strength to hold the point against the run and enough quickness to be disruptive as a pass rusher. But he really struggled as a junior and then shocked everybody by coming out early. Because of the lack of depth at this position, he’ll be given every opportunity to make the team. Whether he’s still around in the fall will depend on which Guy shows up in the summer.
4) M.D. JENNINGS – Even diehard fans were surprised when the undrafted free agent from Arkansas State made the 53-man roster, but they shouldn’t have been. Jennings made plays on a daily basis in practice and he was always around the ball in the preseason games. He never challenged a struggling Charlie Peprah for playing time at safety because he lacked the size and strength needed to play from scrimmage at this level. The coaches would like him to report to training camp at between 195 and 200 pounds after finishing last season under 190. Jennings has a chance to overcome his lack of size and his small college background because he has very good insticts and a real feel for the game.
5) BRANDIAN ROSS - While Davon House figures to go into training camp ahead of Ross on the depth chart, I wouldn’t be shocked if the undrafted free agent from Youngstown St. outplays him – just like he did last summer. House is bigger and faster, but Ross was far more physical and competitive during padded practices and preseason games. And while the 24-year-old wasn’t ready for the big leagues as a rookie, he might be ready after spending over four months on the practice squad and participating in a full offseason of mini-camps and OTAs. In order to take the step, Ross will have to do a better job of anticipating and breaking on throws because he lacks top closing speed.
I left So’oto and House off this list because I have serious reservations about both players. So’oto is tight in his movements. He’s not fluid dropping into coverage, does not change directions smoothly and struggles to break down in space. These are major problems for an OLB in a 3-4. House may look like Al Harris, but he didn’t play like him last summer. He was too passive. He wasn’t aggressive in run support and he didn’t attack the ball in the air. That said, he does have enough physical ability to compete at this level. Whether he’s willing to pay the price remains to be seen.
McCarthy often talks about how the biggest jump a player makes is from year one to year two. Raji, tight end Jermichael Finley, guard Josh Sitton and tackle Marshall Newhouse are prime examples. But they were all draft choices. I can’t remember the last undrafted player to make such a leap. So it’s probably asking an awful lot to expect Lattimore, Jennings and/or Ross to go from rookie benchwarmer to sophomore contributor. But it can happen, and why not be positive in early April? Heck, in early April, even the Cubbies have a chance to win the World Series.
Good article, well thought out. When I just read the names I felt House and So’oto should be on the list but I found myself agreeing w/ your reasoning for keeping them off. Joe Whitt said House can be as good as he wants to be w/ “wants” being the operative word.
Since we’re a draft and develop team here are 6 other names to consider making marked improvement. Almost all have openings due to injury concerns. Anthony Levine and Chris Campbell were making strides when injuries derailed them. Now they may have openings due to injuries of players ahead of them; safety w/ Collins and OT w/ Clifton and Sherrod respectfully. DJ Williams and Ryan Taylor w/ Quarless’s severe knee operation have an opportunity to step up at TE. Maybe Sampson Genus who has been biding his time on the PS, now snatches the moniker of heir apparent to Jeff Saturday. And lastly, Brandon Saine could find more playing time as Alex Green may be eased back into the rotation and can we be sure James Starks stays healthy.
Good thoughts. If I was making a list of second-year players on offense, I’d definitely include many of the players you named.
oops…I thought you were talking sophs, period. After reading your reply I looked back at the article and see that I missed the “on defense” in the first line. Well, at least I got Anthony Levine in there.
Morgan Burnett, while not a true soph, is a guy I expect to make a big jump. His rookie season was ruined early on with an ACL tear, and then his second season was hindered by a broken hand and having a weak partner in Peprah. He still finished season #2 with over 100 tackles, 3 Int’s, 2 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries. He added another Int in the playoffs.
Now is the time for Burnett .. two years removed from ACL surgery, plus he should have his assignments down pat. I expect he’ll make a jump this year.
Lattimore is too small for the OLB position. Levine will keep Jennings and Peprah on the bench. A new player will keep House and Ross on the bench so who’s left is S’oto, Guy, and Smith. Of those three, I’ll pick Smith and wouldn’t be surprised to see Lattimore do some MLB work on passing downs w/ Bishop moving ooutside.
Looks like DJ Smith at this point. I would have said Alex Green, but for his ACL.
Hopefully, MM and Capers will overrule TT and let Smith compete w/Hawk.
Hawk is still around because of the way Thompson structured AJ’s contract, which penalizes the Packers with a hefty cap hit because of Hawk’s ridiculous bonus. The $8 million is spread out over 5 years. So, when AJ is cut (and make no mistake, he will be eventually) all the remaining bonus must be absorbed immediately. At $1.6 million per season, the hit would be $6.4 million in 2012, then $4.8 million in 2013 and so on. Ted wanted AJ on this team long-term no matter what and that’s the way it will be.
A.J. Hawk’s long-term signing I believe was a mistake. My picks for sophomore jumps on defense are So’oto, Guy, and D.J. Smith.
Anxiously awaiting the draft…
I agree about Lattimore he is slippery quick and very fast but w\o sand in his pants no way he can be anything other than a speed rusher (unless he joins the log-jam inside) A guy I’m surprised you didn’t mention Gurley. He will struggle getting playing time but he could be a killer on the puntblock team
Alex Green is gonna be a good one. He did nothing but lead the nation in yards per carry, iirc. He’s gonna be great on screens, assuming he can come back from the knee.
I love MD Jennings. He’s always in position.
Also remember that Shields is gonna have a full offseason for the first time in his career.
Then there’s also my boy Torry Gurley and his buddy Diondre Borel. Gurley was blocking punts in practice on a regular basis and has the size of Plaxico. This team’s got talent.
FYI – this article was only about Defensive players, so Gurley, Green, and Borel would not be mentioned in this article.
Interesting writing, as always, you really offer some insight that I do not find anywhere else.
I agree with “BWL” that last year was really a lost off-season for the 2010 class as well and like you stated in your article – 2011 should have been their off-season to really improve. Along with Burnett & Neal (who most likey is done in Green Bay) there is C.J. Wilson. I think he could be a candidate to make a big jump this off-season as well.
yes, this is the time of the year that all fans get optimistic so I will be the dose of reality that says more likely than not, the cupboard is bare for the team with the 32nd ranked defense in the league.
I liked DJ Smith too but for reasons mentioned, absent a major injury to Hawk, TT will carry on his bro-mance with the slow-stiff one who lacks urgency and verocity.
I agree with the comment that Morgan Burnett should reach near full potential this year. And, with Collins likely retired, Jennings and Levine should exceed what Peprah gave us last year. I also look for TT to draft a large CB in the middle of this draft to convert to a S (no Aaron Rouses please).
I’m surprised to hear you are down on House. Coaches have been nothing but positive about him in their public statements. I was assuming he had a good shot at being one of their few potential defensive brightspots in 2012.
The rest of the guys you listed seem to me to be distant longshots but you never know.
The defense underachieved in 2011, after perhaps overachieving in 2010. You mentioned the regression of Tramon Williams and BJ Raji as two major reasons. Sam Shields was another. The loss of Nick Collins hurt as well. And, of course, the loss of Cullen Jenkins was huge given the failure of Mike Neal to contribute. And the albatross known as AJ Hawk remains for another 4 years, at least.
Unless a near-miracle occurs at pick 28, I don’t expect the pass rush to improve much in 2012. Obviously, it can’t get worse. I also don’t expect much, if any, improvement in coverage from the linebackers. I think the best chance for improvement for this defense is in the secondary. Morgan Burnett should have his best year yet. Tramon Williams and Sam Shields should return to form. They can’t help but get better play out of the other S position regardless of who plays there. And, there is a 50-50 chance they will get somebody in the draft that can help at S or CB, even if only in the nickel or dime, in year one.
I would disagree that Hawk will start by virtue of his contract. Remember, Hawk was in essence benched during the season opener at Philly in 2010, and was then used sparingly until he started playing better towards the end of the season. I really wish he had not played better because then he would not have received that ridiculous contract. But I really do believe DJ Smith will be given a fair chance at starting and will be the starter opposite Bishop in 2012. Also, I think Hawk will be cut after this season unless he does start and shows a remarkable turnaround. After this season, he can be cut to realize a small cap savings rather than a small cap hit like cutting him right now.
I do not think it will take a near miracle at #28 to improve the pass rush. There will be players available that will at least bring energy to the OLB position and make teams respect the rush from that side, which will free up Matthews more. Shea McClellin, Nick Perry, Courtney Upshaw, Vinny Curry all stand a chance to be there and any of which would be a significant upgrade over Walden, Jones, & Zombo. Another possibility, if he actually makes it past Pittsburgh at #27 is Dont’a Hightower. He will be very intriguing to 3-4 teams because he can play either inside or outside linebacker. That provides a great deal of versatility. He played as well, if not better, than Upshaw in the NCS game and showed a pretty good knack for rushing the passer. Plus, he is faster, taller, and covers better than Upshaw.
I agree on House. Everything I read during training camp was positive about him, he was making a lot of plays, and WAS playing physical. Then he got the hamstring or ankle injury and was pretty much derailed from there. With the abbreviated off-season, his chance was gone once that injury occurred.
I expect him to make a big jump this off-season and at the very least put some pressure on Shields to play better.
As far as House is concerned, all I can tell you is what I saw in 3 practices.
As far as improving our pass rush in 2012, it’s rare that a rookie picked at 28 has a major impact on the pass rush. Look at the guys drafted after Aldon Smith last year. Maybe TT he can hit on the 2nd coming of CMIII but I wouldn’t hold my breath on it. I certainly hope he swings for the fences. Two CMIIIs would be too much for this Packer fan to stand.
btw – I am not a Shea McClellin fan, at least not in the first two rounds. I watched him on every defensive play he was in on in the Senior Bowl and saw the 2nd coming of AJ Hawk, not CMIII. Lots of people downplay Andre Branch but to me he is the most fluid DE/OLB convert candidate. Some like Perry and some like Mercilus. Heck, I like Bruce Irvin in R3, even if only a designated pass rusher. Little more than 2 weeks to go before the suspense will be over.
btw#2 – in my earlier post I said verocity when I meant ferocity. I’m not sure what verocity is, if anything.
I don’t care who was in the backfield last season. Revis? Ah, another top CB in the league? Nobody can cover Wr for the amount of time opposing QBs had against GB. That’s the D-Lines fault. Can’t just put bodies in there.
Raji and Clay need another Jenkins. Didn’t get him in FA. So it’s the draft! And undrafted Free agents after the draft.
Goal of this draft has to be twofold:
(1) Solve problem at OLB; and,
(2) Solve problem at DE (Jenkins/Neal).
Get the front 7 functional (sans AJ Hawk) so that the secondary has a fighting chance. Getting Nick Collins back would be a heckuva bonus.