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Mar 052013
 
Florida running back Mike Gillislee isn't getting much love from draft experts

Florida running back Mike Gillislee isn’t getting much love from draft experts

I wouldn’t call myself a draftnik. I don’t watch the NFL Combine on television. I don’t spend countless hours pouring over video. I don’t live in my parents’ basement. And I don’t get an erection when I hear Mike Mayock’s voice. But I do watch an awful lot of college football on Saturday afternoons, so I’m going to give you my humble opinion on who’s the best running back in the draft after Alabama’s Eddie Lacy.

I’m pretty sure he won’t go on day one, but I absolutely love Florida’s Mike Gillislee. I don’t care what the measurables say, this young man impressed me every time I watched him play last season. He showed terrific vision, the ability to make the first tackler miss and enough speed to run away from defenders. He also looked like a kid who won’t be afraid to take on blitzing linebackers at the next level.

The aforementioned Mayock didn’t rank Gillislee among his top 5 running backs. He had Lacy at No. 1, followed by Wisconsin’s Montee Ball, Clemson’s Andre Ellington, North Carolina’s Giovani Bernard and South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore (who is currently rehabbing a torn ACL). I haven’t seen enough of Ellington and Bernard to comment on their pro potential, but I’ve seen plenty of Ball (that just doesn’t sound right). And as far as I’m concerned, if given the choice between the two, I’d take Gillislee in a heartbeat.

Green Bay’s offense needs a back who’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball. For all the fine work Cedric Benson did early and DuJuan Harris did late, neither player was keeping defensive coordinators up at night. Truth is, Mike McCarthy did defenses a favor every time he ran the ball last season.

I realize that this post may make me look foolish a year or three from now, but that’s perfectly fine. Just because Gillislee’s name wasn’t one of the five burnt into the tablet Mayock brought down from Mt. Combine in Indianapolis doesn’t dissuade me from what my eyes saw on a weekly basis. And while I’m not predicting that Gillislie would lead the Packers to the Promised Land of Northern New Jersey next February, I am predicting that he’d be a really good addition to an already productive offense.

Jul 112012
 
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The National Football League will hold its supplemental draft on Thursday afternoon, and the Green Bay Packers are not expected to participate. Based on the past 34 years, that’s probably a pretty good idea. Of the 41 players selected since 1977, only five went on to have distinguished professional careers.

Quarterback Bernie Kosar (1985), wide receivers Cris Carter (1987) and Rob Moore (1990), guard Mike Wahle (1989) and nose tackle Jamal Williams (1989) played in a combined 15 Pro Bowls. Linebacker Brian Bosworth (1987), halfback Bobby Humphrey (1989), defensive end Darren Mickell (1992), linebacker Ahmad Brooks (2006) and tackle Jared Gaither (2007) found varying degrees of success in the NFL. And while the jury is still out on defensive end Jeremy Jarmon (2009), nose tackle Josh Brent (2010) and quarterback Terrelle Pryor (2011), early returns aren’t encouraging.

The other 28 players were either busts or journeymen. And some of the busts were very high picks. Quarterbacks Dave Wilson (1981), Steve Walsh (1989) Timm Rosenbach (1989) and Dave Brown (1992) were all taken in round one. They combined to throw 136 touchdowns and 187 interceptions. Running back Tony Hollings (2nd/2003) and defensive tackles Dan Sileo (3rd/1987) and Darren Benson (3rd/1995) were other high picks who flopped at the next level. And as difficult as it is to find a star in the early rounds, it’s even harder to find a steal in the later rounds. Only Carter (4th), and to a much lesser degree Gaither (5th), would fall into that category.

Eight players are eligible for Thursday’s draft, but only one is certain to be selected. Wide receiver Josh Gordon, who didn’t play football in 2011 after transferring from Baylor to Utah, could go as high as the second round. He has outstanding size and good speed. He was also fairly productive in his one season as a full-time starter. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Gordon wind up with the Redskins. That would reunite him with quarterback Robert Griffin III. It would make perfect sense, and the move would be lauded by most experts. But based on the history of this draft, the odds are very much against the move still being lauded five years from now.

Jul 072012
 
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The National Football League will hold its supplemental draft on July 12. Here’s a look at the eight players who will be available.

DB Quaylon Ewing-Burton: He played in all 13 games as a sophomore for Boise State last season, including four starts. He didn’t see much action late in the year after losing his starting job. He was dismissed from the team in January for failure to “live up to the standards of the program.” It wasn’t his first brush with trouble. He was suspended from his high school team for not abiding by the rules. Ewing-Burton has some ability, but probably not enough to convince a GM to draft him.

WR Josh Gordon: Like Ewing-Burton, he comes with baggage. He was suspended at Baylor after a drug arrest, and then enrolled at Utah where he was unable to play last season due to NCAA transfer rules. Unlike Ewing-Burton, he has the talent to get drafted. He has great size (6’3, 225) and is expected to run under 4.5 at his workout early next week. He caught 42 passes for 714 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010. Some experts predict that Gordon could go as high as the second round, but that’s probably too much of a risk. The third or fourth round is more likely.

FB Adam Harris: No off-the-field issues here, but he’s still the biggest risk in the draft. He suffered three concussions and Syracuse decided “as a result of the injuries, a review of his concussion history and his increased vulnerability for further concussions, he will not be allowed to participate in football.” He said in May that he’s been given the OK play again from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and a neurologist who works for the Steelers. Harris probably wouldn’t have been drafted even with a clean bill of health. The big question now is whether any NFL team will even be willing to give him a chance as a free agent.

OL Adrian Haughton: Another player with baggage, but he has enough size (6’4, 360) to intrigue teams. He started 21 games at right tackle for Iowa State in 2008 and 2009, but was dismissed from the program in the summer of 2010 for violating team rules. No details were disclosed. He spent the past few months playing for the Orlando Predators in the Arena Football League. He’s projected as a guard by most pro scouts. Haughton could get selected very late, but it’s more likely that he’ll be signed as a free agent. He should have a number of suitors.

LB Larry Lumpkin: He’s an intriguing player who ran into academic trouble at both Alabama A&M and Carson-Newman. That will certainly give NFL teams pause. Some scouts have compared him to D.J. Smith of the Packers, another undersized but very productive linebacker from a small school. He recorded 94 tackles – 10.5 for loss – last season. Lumpkin could get drafted late if he runs a good 40 at his scheduled workout next week, but it’s more likely that he’ll sign as a free agent. A perfect player to stash on the practice squad for a year or two.

LB Montez Robinson: He was a highly sought after high school prospect who chose Georgia over LSU, Alabama and Auburn. He hasn’t played football since the ’09 season. He was dismissed from the team in April 2010 after being charged with simple battery/family violence. He allegedly “grabbed and pushed a woman off of his bed and then picked her up and slammed her to the ground.”He played defensive end as a freshman, but was moved to linebacker as a sophomore. That’s where he’s projected to line up in the NFL. Robinson has talent, but he’s hit more women than quarterbacks in the past two years. There’s no chance he’ll get drafted.

WR Houston Tuminello: He started as a freshman at Louisiana Tech, but left in the middle of his sophomore season due to personal reasons. Things went downhill from there. He failed to distinguish himself in subsequent stops at Stephen F. Austin and tiny McMurray College. He lacks ideal size (5’11, 190) and speed (4.66). Tuminello won’t get drafted. He’ll probably spend the upcoming season in Canada or the UFL and then try to hook on with an NFL team next spring.

RB Ed Wesley: He gained 2,457 yards in three seasons at TCU, but decided to leave the team for family reasons. He’s a good football player who lacks ideal measurables. His size (5’9, 200) and speed (4.6 est.) won’t wow anybody, but he runs with good lateral quickness and surprising power. While he probably won’t start at the next level, he has a chance to be a solid backup in the right situation. Wesley might’ve gone as high as the fifth round in April, but that was then and this is now. Being picked very late or signing as a free agent are the most likely scenarios.

The Packers haven’t selected a player in the supplemental draft since offensive lineman Mike Wahle in 1998. That streak is almost certain to continue for another year. General manager Ted Thompson hates giving up future picks, and this is one of the weakest collection of prospects in recent memory. The only player with big-time talent carries more baggage than a Boeing 747.

May 032012
 
Plays like this earned Carroll a place on this dubious list

Plays like this earned Carroll a place on this very dubious list

General managers insist it takes at least three years to grade a draft, but that doesn’t stop the media from giving out report cards less than 24 hours after Mr. Irrelevance is announced and Mel Kiper Jr. climbs back into his basement. It’s absolutely ridiculous. Nobody knows how Jerel Worthy will play in the NFL – not even the scouts who studied him 24/7 for the past six months. How big a crapshoot is the draft? Well, the Packers under Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson have been about as good in late April as any team, and yet the past two decades have still produced an awful lot of early round busts in Green Bay (granted, many of them occurred under Mike Sherman’s reign of terror). Anyway, here’s a list of the 20 worst picks over the past 20 years:

20- LB ABDUL HODGE (2006/3rd/67): He was a tackling machine at Iowa, but a lack of speed and bad knees ended his time in Green Bay after only 8 games and 10 total tackles. He kicked around for three more seasons before his career ended in 2010.

19- DB MARQUES ANDERSON (2002/3rd/92): The former UCLA star showed some potential as a rookie (62 tackles and 4 INTs), but he regressed in his second season and was traded to the Raiders after the ’03 season. He went on to play with the Broncos and 49ers before finding himself out of the league for good in 2006.

18- DT STEVE WARREN (2000/3rd/74): Many scouts thought he was too small (6’0, 295) to play in the NFL, but Wolf wasn’t one of them. They were right and he was wrong. The former Nebraska star amassed only 14 tackles and 1 sack in three seasons and was out of the league by 2003.

17- RB LESHON JOHNSON (1994/3rd/84): The former Northern Illinois star ran like the wind and put up spectacular numbers in college, but he lacked toughness. He would run to the sideline at the first hint of contact. He was cut by the Packers after two seasons and wound up rushing for a total of 955 yards in his career.

16- DL JONATHAN BROWN (1998/3rd/90): The former Tennessee star was released by the Packers after only one season. That almost never happens to a third-round pick. After failing to stick with the Broncos in 2000, he went on to have a successful professional career in Europe and Canada.

15- LB TORRANCE MARSHALL (2001/3rd/72): Wolf’s last draft was one to forget. The former Oklahoma star looked like the next Lawrence Taylor, but unfortunately, he played more like Elizabeth Taylor. He managed only 65 tackles in his first three seasons before moving to fullback in ’04.

14- CB JOEY THOMAS (2004/3rd/70): The former Montana star was part of one of the worst draft classes in league history (thanks Sherman). Beating up Ahmad Carroll was the only memorable thing he did in his two seasons with the Packers. Spent time with New Orleans and Miami, but was out of the NFL by 2009.

Sander (11) proved to be a better holder than punter

13- P B.J. SANDER (2004/3rd/87): Sherman traded up to get the former Ohio State star and then compounded the mistake by keeping him around in ’04 as the backup punter. It’s always risky to draft a punter in the third round,  but it’s downright foolish to draft one in the third round with a weak leg. He was out of the league after two seasons.

12- PK BRETT CONWAY (1997/3rd/90): Wolf drafted the former Penn State star to replace Chris Jacke, but he was a disaster in his first training camp. He missed kick after kick and eventually injured a hamstring. While he sat on IR, Ryan Longwell got the job and held it for the next decade.

11- WR DERRICK MAYES (1996/2nd/56): The former Notre Dame star was the original Mr. August. He would put up staggering numbers in the preseason and then do next to nothing once the real games started. He caught only 54 passes in three season with the Packers before being traded to Seattle for a late pick.

10- DL DONNELL WASHINGTON (2004/3rd/72): He’s the second member of the class of ’04 to make this list. The former Clemson star had incredible physical ability, but he was an underachiever in college. He reported to his first training camp out of shape and quickly got hurt. He didn’t play a game for the Packers in two seasons.

9- DB GEORGE TEAGUE (1993/1st/29): His 101-yard interception return in the 1993 playoffs was his one highlight in three seasons with the Packers. He then made headlines with the Cowboys in 2000 when he shoved Terrell Owens off the star logo at midfield. Unfortunately, he did little in the years in between.

8- CB FRED VINSON (1999/2nd/47): Drafted to help defend against Randy Moss, the former Vanderbilt star never had the speed or quickness to cover NFL receivers. That didn’t stop Mike Holmgren from trading for him in 2000. All the Packers got back in return was Ahman Green, who went on to rush for 9,205 yards.

7- CB ANTUAN EDWARDS (1999/1st/25): The former Clemson star had prototypical size and speed, but he was a tweener. He wasn’t quick enough to play corner or tough enough to play safety. The Packers moved him all over in a desperate attempt to salvage his career, but they gave up after five nondescript seasons.

6- OT JOHN MICHELS (1996/1st/27): Baltimore chose Ray Lewis right before the Packers were to pick, so Wolf settled for the former USC star. He looked more like a tight end than a left tackle when he reported to his first training camp. He eventually showed some potential, but knee injuries ended his career by 2000.

5- CB AHMAD CARROLL (2004/1st/25): Along with Thomas and Washington, he was part of a draft class so bad that Vinny Cerrato laughs at it. The former Arkansas star ran fast, but he lacked height and had absolutely no instincts. Thompson couldn’t wait to get rid of him, and he did just that early in the ’06 season.

4- CB TERRELL BUCKLEY (1992/1st/5): Wolf’s first pick as GM was one of his worst. He chose the diminutive former Florida State star over local hero Troy Vincent and lived to regret it. Buckley wound up intercepting 50 passes in 14 seasons, but his three years in Green Bay had far more lows than highs.

Brohm never saw the field in his one season with Packers

3- QB BRIAN BROHM (2008/2nd/56): There aren’t too many Thompson picks on the list, but here’s the second of three. The former Louisville star was a prolific passer in college, but he looked scared from the moment he arrived in Green Bay. He was so bad that the Packers parted ways with him after only one season.

2- DL JUSTIN HARRELL (2007/1st/16): Here’s the second Thompson pick, and it’s a doozy. The former Tennessee star battled injuries in college and his bad luck continued in the NFL. But it wouldn’t be fair to place all the blame on injuries for his disappointing three-year career. He showed little even when healthy.

1- DL JAMAL REYNOLDS (2001/1st/10): We still don’t know who was responsible for this pick. Wolf and Sherman have blamed each other for years. The former Florida State star never showed any of the explosiveness he flashed in college. Without that, he had no answer for tackles who outweighed him by 60 pounds.

Looking at this list, it’s hard to believe that the Packers have been one of the best teams in the NFL for the past 20 years. It just goes to show how difficult it is to judge college players, and how absurd it is to assign grades the day after a draft. By the way, I didn’t include Mark D’Onofrio (1992/2nd/34) or Terrence Murphy (2005/2nd/58) on this list because their careers were busts due to injury and not incompetence. Defensive linemen Darius Holland (1995/3rd/65) and Kenny Peterson (2003/3rd/79) and safety Aaron Rouse (2007/3rd/89) just missed being included. Here’s hoping that none of the young men selected by Green Bay last weekend end up on a list like this five years from now.

Apr 302012
 
Second-round pick Hayward could be the No. 3 cornerback

Second-round pick Hayward could be the No. 3 cornerback

Ted Thompson watched his defense go from good to historically bad in 12 months and he wasn’t going to sit back and do nothing. Green Bay’s normally conservative GM signed twice-suspended Anthony Hargrove as a free agent in March and then traded up two times in the draft to procure help for his team’s feeble pass rush and leaky secondary. It remains to be seen how these springtime moves play out in the fall, but at least on paper, the defense sure looks a lot better today than it did two months ago.

Here’s my position-by-position look at the post-draft Green Bay Packers:

QUARTERBACK- The Packers needed to draft a rookie to challenge Graham Harrell for the backup job. Seventh-round draft choice B.J. Coleman could be that player if he’s able to make a quick transition from Tennessee-Chattanooga to the National Football League. He has all the physical traits a team looks for in a young quarterback, but his numbers in college were surprisingly pedestrian. I have no idea whether that’s more a reflection on Coleman or on his supporting cast. Either way, his development under coach Mike McCarthy, offensive coordinator Tom Clements and quarterbacks coach Ben McAdoo will be fascinating to watch.

RUNNING BACK- Thompson didn’t draft at this position for the fourth time since taking over as GM in 2005. That leaves James Starks, Alex Green and Brandon Saine as the top three entering the first minicamp. It also leaves the door open for Ryan Grant’s return, but only if the former 1,200 yard rusher is willing to accept a deal for around the league minimum. If he’s not, the Packers should be fine without him. Remember, this team won a Super Bowl with John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson combining for nearly 300 carries. Speaking of Kuhn, he’ll return as the starting fullback.

TIGHT END- Even with Andrew Quarless likely to being the regular season on the PUP list, Thompson didn’t draft at this position. Perhaps that’s because he believes D.J. Williams and Ryan Taylor are ready to contribute on offense after spending the majority of their rookie seasons on special teams. Williams is the more natural receiver of the two, but Taylor showed better instincts and more toughness last summer. Another young player to keep an eye on is undrafted free agent Eric Flair. The athletic and versatile former Gopher figures to get a look at both tight end and fullback.

WIDE RECEIVER- Based on past history, it was a little surprising that Thompson didn’t draft a wide receiver. Then again, Tori Gurley and Diondre Borel probably have as much potential as any of the wide receivers picked on day 3. The Packers also added a pair of undrafted free agents. Marcus Rivers (Buffalo) and former basketball player turned football star Dale Moss (South Dakota St.) are intriguing prospects. Both measure in at 6’3 and run in the low 4.5s.

OFFENSIVE LINE- Thompson finally drafted an offensive lineman in the seventh round, but Andrew Datko isn’t going to add much-needed depth at guard and center. The former Florida State star is strictly a tackle. Right now, Evan Dietrich-Smith is the No. 1 backup at all three interior positions. He did OK in two starts at right guard last season, but this is the same player that was released by the Packers in September 2010. Second-year men Ray Dominguez and Sampson Genus will also be in the mix. The former is a college tackle who’s still learning to play inside. The latter has plenty of experience inside, but is barely six-feet tall. With such dubious depth, undrafted free agents Jaymes Brooks (Virginia Tech) and  Don Barclay (West Virginia) figure to get long looks in the months to come.

DEFENSIVE LINE- If you think you were frustrated watching Jarius Wynn, C.J. Wilson and Mike Neal attempt to rush the quarterback last season, imagine how Thompson felt. Well, you don’t have to imagine. He told you exactly how frustrated he was by drafting two defensive linemen in the first four rounds. Second-round pick Jerel Worthy doesn’t have prototypical size to play end in a 3-4, but he has prototypical power and quickness to rush the QB. Fourth-round pick Mike Daniels doesn’t have prototypical size to play any position in a 3-4, but he also can rush the quarterback. See the pattern? Along with free agent Anthony Hargrove, the inside pass rush should be markedly better in 2012.

LINEBACKER- I may not be the biggest Nick Perry fan in the world, but after complaining for two years about Thompson’s refusal to draft a partner for Clay Matthews, I can’t complain too much. There’s no question the former USC star will make the Packers better at right outside linebacker; just how much better remains to be seen. Perry is a terrific athlete, but he ran hot and cold in college. It’ll be up to assistant coach Kevin Green to keep the heat turned up. Thompson traded up to get Terrell Manning in the fifth round. The former North Carolina State star projects inside. He probably won’t play much in the base defense, but he could be used as a rusher in certain packages. Along with returnees D.J. Smith, Jamari Lattimore and Vic So’oto, the competition at this position should be intense.

DEFENSIVE BACK- Thompson traded up to get Casey Hayward in the second round, and the former Vanderbilt star will be expected to challenge Sam Shields for the No. 3 cornerback job. Hayward doesn’t run nearly as well as Shields, but he’s a better tackler and a more cerebral player. That means an awful lot to coaches who had to watch corners miss tackles and blow assignments week after week in 2011. Last year’s fourth-round pick, Davon House, will also be in the picture. You wouldn’t normally give a rookie from Maine much of a chance to win a starting job, but that’s not the case with Jerron McMillian. The speedy fourth-round pick will be given every opportunity to unseat journeyman Charlie Peprah at safety. Young veterans M.D. Jennings and Anthony Levine will also be in the mix.

SPECIALISTS- The Packers are in very good shape with kicker Mason Crosby, punter Tim Masthay and long snapper Bret Goode. There was no need to draft a specialist, and any undrafted free agents signed will be camp bodies only.

Apr 292012
 
Ex-Hokie has the talent to earn a spot on the 53-man roster

Ex-Hokie has the talent to earn a spot on the 53-man roster

General manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy seem to make room for a few undrafted free agents every year, so the odds are pretty good that at least one of the 14 rookies signed on Saturday night will still be around when the final 53-man roster is set in early September. The most intriguing player from that group might be offensive lineman Jaymes Brooks, who started 42 games at right guard for Virginia Tech.

The Packers are set on the interior of the offensive line with starters T.J. Lang, Jeff Saturday and Josh Sitton, but the depth behind them is questionable. Evan Dietrich-Smith did a decent job filling in for Sitton late last season, but he’s a very limited athlete who figures to get exposed the more he has to play. Second-year man Ray Dominguez has size and athletic ability, but he’s still learning how to play inside after lining up at tackle in college. And while Sampson Genus flashed some potential on the practice squad, he’s barely six-feet tall. That leaves the door wide open for someone to emerge and win a job in training camp. It just might be Brooks.

A lack of size and inconsistent play are the two biggest knocks against Brooks. He’s not terribly undersized (6’2, 298), but general managers prefer bigger players on the interior of the offensive line. The top 10 guards and centers selected in this weekend’s draft were on average two inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than Brooks. But that’s not what kept him from being drafted. What kept him from being drafted were his uneven performances as a senior. I watched a handful of Virginia Tech games last season and I rarely saw the same player twice. That’s because his technique tends to get sloppy at times, and when it does, he can’t compensate for his short arms (32) and average strength.

In an effort to improve his strength, Brooks spent the months prior to his pro day working at the TEST Football Academy in Florida. According to the Daily press, “he went through a training regimen that helped him improve his flexibility and lower body explosiveness… characteristics that could benefit at either guard or center.” That brings up another thing to like about Brooks – his versatility. He played center in the Players All-Star Classic. “I had about 30 plays in the actual game at center,” the second team All-ACC selection told the Daily Press. “I played pretty well.”

While Brooks was obviously disappointed about not being drafted, there was never any doubt that he’d get an opportunity to play in the NFL. Denver, Minnesota, Washington, Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and yes, the Packers spoke to him in the past few weeks. He received over a dozen offers on Saturday night, but chose to sign with Green Bay. The lack of proven depth at center and guard and Thompson’s well-deserved rep for giving undrafted free agents a legitimate opportunity in training camp were probably the reasons he made that decision.

Apr 282012
 
Small defensive lineman has big potential as a pass rusher

Watch Mike Daniels play against Oklahoma in last December’s Insight Bowl and you’ll immediately know why GM Ted Thompson spent a fourth-round pick on a defensive lineman who will probably never see more than 30 snaps in a game. The former Iowa star won’t be a starter because he’s too short (6’0) to play end in a 3-4 and too light (290) to play nose tackle. What he will be, however, is a disruptive pass rusher. And that’s why he could be to the Packers what Steve Kerr was to the Bulls in the 1980s – a specialist who helped turn an already great team into a dynasty.

I became enamored with Daniels while watching him dominate the Sooners. He was far and away the best defensive player on the field that night, but I never considered him as a possibility for the Packers because of his size. That was my mistake – and it’s why I’m not a GM. Thompson always talks about drafting good players regardless of where they project in the National Football League. By selecting Daniels, he put his money (or in this case, the team’s money), where his mouth is.

Daniels ran an eye-opening 4.86 at the NFL Combine in February, but he’s not just extremely fast for a player his size. He also has a lightning quick first step and natural explosion. That, along with a non-stop motor, is what should make him an effective pass rusher at the next level. One scout compared him to Drake Nevis, who was drafted out of LSU in the third round by the Indianapolis Colts a year ago. I can see the similarities. Both players were very productive at big-time colleges, both players are very quick and both players were devalued by scouts because of their size. However, I see Daniels as a better overall prospect. He’s slightly more athletic and he’s more explosive.

So why was such a talented prospect still available at the end of the fourth round? There are two main reasons. The first is his lack of size and strength. He’s simply not big or strong enough to start in a 3-4, and over half the teams in the league are currently using that scheme. This obviously didn’t dissuade Thompson, but most general managers wouldn’t be willing to use a pick that high on a part-time player. And as any regular person knows, the smaller the group of prospective employers, the smaller the chance of getting a job. The other reason is his history of injuries. Daniels suffered a number of concussions while at Iowa and he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum after the bowl game.

With Daniels, second-round pick Jerel Worthy, free agent Anthony Hargrove and holdover B.J. Raji, the defense should be able to generate consistent pressure up the middle in 2012. That didn’t happen last season when Jarius Wynn, C.J. Wilson and Mike Neal all struggled to get within five feet of the quarterback. This new foursome may not be fearsome, but it should be pretty good. And if first-round pick Nick Perry plays up to his enormous potential at outside linebacker, the days of quarterbacks sitting in the pocket all day and picking apart the secondary should be over. That’s why the only people more pumped-up about this pick than me are named Woodson, Williams and Shields.

 

Apr 282012
 
Second-round pick Worthy should add more juice to the pass rush

Second-round draft pick Worthy should add much-needed juice to the pass rush

How bad was the Green Bay defense last season? Bad enough to get general manager Ted Thompson to trade up twice in round two – something he had only done three times in the previous seven drafts. The objects of his affection were Michigan State defensive end Jerel Worthy and Vanderbilt cornerback Casey Hayward. Coupled with first-rounder Nick Perry of USC, the Packers have added two potential starters and a likely nickel or dime back to a defense that couldn’t slow down anyone a year ago.

Thompson had to give up third, fourth and fifth round picks to get Worthy and Hayward, but so what? Green Bay still has a pair of 4s, a 6th and four 7s – not to mention arguably the deepest roster in the National Football League. Here’s my analysis of the two players picked on Friday and a look at how they’ll fit in with their new team:

JEREL WORTHY (6’2 1/2, 308, 5.03) – I didn’t think he rushed the quarterback well enough to go in the first round, but he’s a bargain at 51. A little short for a 3-4 end, but he has more than enough strength to anchor against the run. And while he didn’t put up big sack numbers at Michigan State (12 sacks in three seasons), he was around the quarterback an awful lot. He’ll need to improve his bull rush at the next level. He was too reliant on quickness to beat guards and centers in college and he was too quick to let up when his initial charge was stymied. It’ll be up to highly respected defensive line coach Mike Trgovac to get the most out of this young man, and if he can, watch out.

VERDICT: Worth moving up for. At best, Jerel will prove to be a Worthy replacement for former Packer Cullen Jenkins. At worst, he should still be a sizable upgrade from Jarius Wynn, C.J. Wilson and the 2011 version of Mike Neal.

CASEY HAYWARD (5’11 1/4, 192, 4.53) – Corners who run over 4.5 at under 195 pounds aren’t supposed to go in the second round, but there are always exceptions. A handful of more physically impressive defensive backs were still on the board at 62, but none of them possessed this young man’s ball skills or football IQ – two things that are very important to Thompson, coordinator Dom Capers and assistant Joe Whitt Jr. All three men love corners who can pick off passes – something Hayward did 15 times in college (including 7 as a senior). And after watching so many blown coverages in 2011, I’m guessing they also kinda like the idea of adding a Vanderbilt man to the secondary.

VERDICT: Sam Shields regressed and rookie Davon House was a bit of a disappointment, so the door is open for Hayward. He’ll either play well enough to win the nickel job from Shields or he’ll push him to get better. It’s a win-win either way.

The Packers won’t pick again until the end of the fourth round, and by that point, Thompson will have no choice but to take the best player available regardless of position. A young quarterback to challenge weak-armed Graham Harrell, an interior offensive lineman to challenge journeyman Evan Dietrich-Smith and a safety to compete with veteran Charlie Peprah and youngsters Anthony Levine and M.D. Jennings would seem to be the top remaining priorities, but that doesn’t mean Thompson would pass up a talented running back, tight end or wide receiver. Remember, Ryan Grant is unsigned, Jennings can be a free agent in 2013 and Finley could hit the open market a year later.

 

Apr 272012
 
Penn State's defensive end is Still available

Penn State's defensive end is Still available after round one

Ted Thompson has to select both an outside linebacker and a defensive end early in this draft. One down and one to go. First round pick Nick Perry will be an instant upgrade opposite Clay Matthews, but the Packers are still woefully lacking talent on the defensive line. Fortunately, there are a number of quality players still available at that position. Among them are Clemson’s Brandon Thompson, Penn State’s Devon Still, Michigan State’s Jerel Worthy and Connecticut’s Kendall Reyes. The chances of any of the four getting to 59 are slim, so Thompson may have to trade up to get one. With 11 picks still left in his pocket, he certainly has the ammunition to do just that. Will he? Well, that’s why so many of us will be glued to our televisions on a Friday night.

If Thompson chooses not to draft an end in round two, he’s likely to turn his attention to either the offensive line or the secondary. Depth is shaky at center and guard. Evan Dietrich-Smith did an adequate job filling in last season, but the jury’s still out on his longterm viability. Young Ray Dominguez has some talent, but he wasn’t near ready to play as a rookie and he might still be a year away. In the secondary, the Packers have no clear-cut fourth cornerback or starting safety opposite Morgan Burnett. Some of the top interior linemen still available are Wisconsin’s Peter Konz, Midwestern States’s Amini Silatolu, Miami of Ohio’s Brandon Brooks and Georgia’s Cordy Glenn. The best defensive backs left are Montana’s Trumaine Johnson, Oklahoma State’s Markelle Martin, LSU’s Brandon Taylor, North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins and Central Florida’s Josh Robinson.

Apr 272012
 
Packers draft another USC linebacker in the first round

The Green Bay Packers struck gold when they selected a Southern Cal linebacker Clay Matthews in the first round three years ago. GM Ted Thompson is hoping for a bit of déjà vu with Nick Perry, another extremely athletic ex-Trojan who was picked 28th overall in Thursday’s draft. Perry will be expected to start opposite Matthews in 2012 and provide the second edge rusher that Dom Capers’ defense so desperately lacked last season. The Detroit native led the Pac-12 conference with 9.5 sacks a year ago.

Alabama’s Courtney Upshaw was a more productive player in college, but I can understand why Thompson preferred Perry. He has more potential as a pass rusher. While Upshaw is tougher against the run and more experienced with his hand off the ground, Perry is far more athletic. In fact, he’s about as athletic as any 270-pound front seven player I’ve seen in the past few years. His first step is lightning quick and he flashes the hustle, quick hands and closing speed to cause problems for even the best offensive tackles. Just ask Stanford’s Jonathan Martin, who’s expected to be drafted early in round two. Perry dominated him in a triple overtime game last October.

So why was a player this talented still available at the end of the first round? Because Perry ran hot and cold in college. He would look like a top-10 pick one week and a fifth-rounder the next. That type of inconsistency scares the heck out of general managers, but Thompson obviously isn’t overly concerned. He probably figures that playing alongside veteran leaders Matthews, Ryan Pickett and Charles Woodson and playing for gung-ho assistant coach Kevin Green will be all the motivation Perry needs to fulfill his enormous potential. We’ll soon find out if he’s right.

 

Apr 262012
 
espnsucks

I used to hate it when some “old person” would tell me how much better things were when they were young. Movies were better back then. So was music. And, of course, there was no comparison when it came to sports. I would just roll my eyes and swear to myself that I would never become one of those geezers when I grew up. Well, I’m all grown up now, and you know what, I’m going to say something today that I swore I’d never say – the NFL draft was better when I was young.

Instead of a prime time event broken up over three days, the draft used to begin on a Tuesday morning and it didn’t end until every single pick was made (or until one of the GMs keeled over from exhaustion – whichever came first). It was survival of the fittest, and it was great.

Instead of squeezing in an occasional pick between a million promos and commercials, ESPN used to actually cover the draft. Imagine that. Back then, you didn’t have to worry about missing your favorite team’s selection because yet another Subway ad was being forced down your throat.

Instead of plastering my television with so many graphics that I don’t know whether I’m watching the NFL draft on ESPN or “Hardball” on MSNBC, how about letting me know what’s happening by actually telling me what’s happening. Do I really need a constant reminder on Saturday of which player the Packers took on Thursday? And do I need a continuous graphic telling me which poor slobs from the Best Available Players board are still undrafted?

Instead of Chris Berman trying to impress the viewing audience by mentioning ad nauseam his numerous sycophant-like relationships around the NFL, the man now more a caricature than a broadcaster used to actually talk serious football with his colleagues. No ridiculous nicknames. No fawning over the Andy Reids and Bill Polians of the NFL. Just nuts and bolts draft conversation. Boy, I miss that.

Instead of Mel Kiper tempering his comments in an effort to maintain his relationships around the league, the man with the coiffed hair actually used to criticize picks, and more importantly, he criticized the people who made them. His frankness often led to uncomfortable moments. Who can ever forget then-Indianapolis Colts president Bill Tobin eviscerating Kiper in 1994? It was classic TV. Nowadays, Mel spends most of his time sparring with fellow draft “expert” Todd McShay. It’s hardly the same.

Instead of pretty much glossing over rounds two through seven in lieu of giving its 48 correspondents a chance to earn their salaries by conducting numerous mind-numbing interviews, wouldn’t it be nice to hear a cogent analysis of each pick? How many times do we need to hear a head coach or a general manager tell us how surprised they were that a certain player fell or just how good of a kid they’ve added to their roster?

Instead of listening to semi-literate former NFL stars give their opinions on players they’ve probably never actually seen play, how about hiring more people who actually know what they’re talking about? Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman used to sit at the adult table when the draft first started, and he was great. He never played in the league and he certainly wasn’t pretty to look at, but he spoke articulately and he actually knew his stuff.

OK, I know some of you are thinking that I’m just some guy in his 40s who doesn’t have NFL Network. Well I am and I don’t, but that’s beside the point. Television has turned the NFL draft from a die hard football fan’s dream into just another prime time show. The difference is that prime time shows are often filled with interesting characters whose primary job it to enhance and advance the story. ESPN’s characters are seldom interesting and they more often than not either distract from the story or even obscure it.

I’m going to end this column rant now. It’s time for me to remove my bifocals, have a glass of warm milk and take a nap. After all, the draft is tonight and I can’t wait.

(I originally wrote this column in April 2010. My cable company added NFL Network between then and now, so I won’t have to watch ESPN’s coverage. This post is for all the fans who aren’t so lucky.)

Apr 252012
 
imagesCAYLX3FO

I have absolutely no idea which player the Green Bay Packers will choose in the first round, and anyone who tells you differently is lying. Ted Thompson is as tight-lipped as any general manager in the league and his staff is every bit as secretive. Therefore, nothing he does should really surprise anyone. In fact, I’d only be surprised if our picks actually turn out to be the same. So for whatever it’s worth, here’s my annual exercise in futility:

Picking so late in the first round is good if you’re a fan of the Packers, but it’s brutal if you’re also a writer trying to predict which player Thompson will select. This is no exaggeration – in the past week I’ve had nine different players going at 28. Offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler, defensive linemen Jerel Worthy, Devon Still, Brandon Thompson and Kendall Reyes and linebackers Courtney Upshaw, Dont’a Hightower, Shea McClellin and Andre Branch have all at one time or another been my choice. And in each case, doubt quickly crept in and I changed my mind. I’ve been the epitome of indecisiveness for the past week. In short, I’ve been to this particular mock draft what Mike Tice and the Vikings were to the real one in 2003.

On second (and sometimes third and fourth) thought, I came to the conclusion that Upshaw and Hightower aren’t going to be available and that Worthy, Still and Reyes simply don’t rush the quarterback well enough to merit being picked at No. 28. That left Zeitler, Thompson, McClellin and Branch. I dismissed Zeitler because of the position he plays. I just don’t see the Packers spending a first-round pick on an offensive lineman for the third year in a row. And while McClellin and Branch both look the part, I didn’t see enough on video to think either would be an impact player at the next level.

And then there was one. I originally dismissed Thompson because of the school he attended and his size. As I said before, there are more busts at Clemson than at Hooters. And at 6’2, 315, he projects more to nose tackle than end in a 3-4. But the more I watched him play, the less I cared about those things. What I saw was a powerful and explosive defensive lineman – basically the type of player Justin Harrell was supposed to be. The difference is that Thompson has a much cleaner medical history and far more potential as a pass rusher. In Green Bay, the 22-year-old would start immediately at defensive end and move inside in the nickel. The fact that he could also take snaps on the nose only makes him more valuable.

 

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY:

Clemson's Brandon Thompson would make sense for Packers

National Football Post’s Wes Bunting: A guy who should be able to come in and be a lineman who can win inside vs. the run game. Looks a bit limited as a pass rusher, but will be able to push the pocket and threaten gaps off the ball. A starting caliber 4-3 nose inside.

NFL.com: “Thompson brings value to the NFL in that he can play both defensive tackle or nose tackle at the next level. With his size and athletic ability, Thompson has been a disruptive force for Clemson. He plays stout against the run and will plug the hole well for an NFL team. He is able to find the ball as a defender and is effective after the snap in making plays in the backfield. He doesn’t bring a ton of pass-rush ability, but he will be able to serve as a strong presence up front. He has the talent to warrant a late first or early second-round pick.

Pro Football Weekly’s Nolan Nawrocki: “Thickly built, powerful, versatile defensive tackle with starter-caliber size, strength and quickness… Disruptive pass-rush skills – can win with quickness or bull his way to the quarterback…Is best-suited on the nose in a 4-3 paired with an attention-demanding three-technique, but also could draw interest as a 3-4 five-technique given his stellar run defense.”

Lindy’s: “Penetrates through gaps, often forcing running backs to elude him or the back end of the offensive lineman he’s pushing before they even reach the line…Explodes out of his stance, demonstrating a burst upfield to slip gaps and the lateral agility once past the line to chase down quarterbacks.”

 

Apr 222012
 
Underrated and versatile offensive lineman should have a long and successful career in NFL

Underrated and versatile offensive lineman should have a successful career in NFL

I still expect the Packers to take a defensive end or outside linebacker in the first round, but if GM Ted Thompson truly wants to adhere to his best player available philosophy, he might find Kevin Zeitler difficult to pass up at 28. While watching a few Wisconsin games recently, I came away extremely impressed with the massive guard who played in the shadow of All-American center Peter Konz for the past few seasons.

There’s no sure thing in the draft, but Zeitler is pretty darn close. While he may never be the best player at his position, at the very least, he should be a solid starter for the next 10 years. And considering that Thompson seems more than OK with getting a solid starter with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2006 draft (linebacker A.J. Hawk), I’m guessing he’d be absolutely thrilled with getting a similar type player 23 picks later.

How much do I like Zeitler? Enough to take him over Konz if the two players were both still on the board at 28. The big reason is Zeitler’s versatility. He’ll be drafted into the NFL as a guard, but he shouldn’t have any trouble moving to center. He plays wide-based with solid anchor strength and can stop a charge. He also shows awareness in pass protection. Mix in ideal size (6’4, 315) and above-average athleticism and you’ve got the recipe for a terrific interior offensive lineman. Konz might be able to play multiple positions at the next level, but I have my doubts. His height (6’5) could be an issue at center and it would almost certainly be an issue at guard. It’s really tough for players that tall – even fairly flexible ones like Konz – to keep defenders from getting under their pad level at times.

Picking Zeitler at 28 wouldn’t help Green Bay’s 32nd-ranked defense, but it would protect the team at a pair of vulnerable positions on offense. Left guard T. J. Lang is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2013 and newly signed center Jeff Saturday will turn 37 in June. That means the Packers could need two new starters on the offensive line a year from now. Zeitler would be able to fill either hole. In the meantime – assuming he doesn’t beat out Lang in training camp – he would provide outstanding depth. And while improving the defense has to be a priority for Thompson, it’s no more important than making sure Aaron Rodgers will be adequately protected in the future.

 

Apr 182012
 
Young QB should face stiff competition this summer

The Green Bay Packers will begin offseason workouts with Graham Harrell as their No. 2 quarterback, and in my opinion, there’s no way the team should feel comfortable with the former Texas Tech standout being one turned ankle away from the starting lineup. That’s why I fully expect general manager Ted Thompson to add another quarterback to the roster between now and the start of training camp – one with a better pedigree and more upside than recently signed former Arena Leaguer Nick Hill.

It’s possible I’m underestimating Harrell the way I underestimated Matt Flynn when he first joined the Packers as a seventh-round afterthought in 2008. And while Flynn showed far more potential than Harrell in his first training camp and made a much bigger jump from year one to year two, it’s very important to remember that Harrell has yet to take part in one of McCarthy’s now legendary quarterback schools – an offseason program that both the teacher and his pupils agree is an invaluable resource. So there’s certainly a chance Harrell will report to camp in late July a much-improved player and a legitimate option behind reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. I just have my doubts.

Flynn is hardly a physical specimen, and that’s why I have my doubts about his ability to win consistently in the Great Northwest. That said, after two seasons in the NFL, he was superior to Harrell in just about every area in which a QB is judged. Flynn was tougher to bring down in the pocket and he kept his delivery consistent – both in and out of the pocket. Harrell has decent size (6’2, 215), but he has a narrow frame that isn’t very sturdy and he tends to carry the ball low on the move and sling it sidearm. Neither player has a big arm, but Flynn’s deep outs didn’t die nearly as frequently as Harrell’s, and his accuracy on the deep ball was better. And while it’s hard to judge in practice and preseason games, Harrell doesn’t appear to be a take-charge leader – a trait Flynn exhibited from day one.

McCarthy obviously sees something worthwhile in Harrell – that’s why he’s still here and why he was promoted from the practice squad when Buffalo wanted to sign him last December – but he clearly doesn’t believe in him the way he believed in Flynn. For example, Flynn was never placed on waivers – allowing any team in the league to claim him for $100. And even McCarthy’s own words are a bit tepid. “I’m hopeful he can [replace Flynn],” said the coach a few months ago. “I think he’s got instincts and toughness. I want to take him to the quarterback school. I like his makeup.”

McCarthy proved four years ago that he’s not afraid to go into a season with a rookie backup quarterback. In fact, he had a pair of first-year players (Flynn and Brian Brohm) behind Rodgers in 2008. But finding the right rookie is the key. The Packers aren’t going to use an early pick at this position, so Thompson will have to find a prospect on day three. I haven’t seen all the second-tier QBs play, but I did see quite a bit of Kirk Cousins (Michigan State), Nick Foles (Arizona), Aaron Corp (Richmond), Kellen Moore (Boise State) and Case Keenum (Houston) and wasn’t overly impressed.

The one second-tier quarterback who did impress me was Russell Wilson. The former Wisconsin star is intelligent, athletic and blessed with an above-average arm. He’s also a great leader. Unfortunately, he’s probably too short to be a full time starter at the next level. But with Rodgers in the prime of his career, the Packers don’t need to find a future No. 1. They simply need to find someone who’ll be capable of steering the ship for a short period of time. I think Wilson could be just that guy. He reminds me of a more talented version of Cleveland’s Seneca Wallace, who played for Thompson in Seattle (2003 and 2004) and who has been a fairly competent backup for the past seven seasons.

Apr 162012
 
First round might be too high for former Boise State star

First round might be too high for former Boise State star

Forget Everybody Loves Raymond, the big show among Packers fans is Everybody Loves Shea. I’m talking, of course, about Shea McClellin, the outside linebacker from Boise State who is flying up draft boards and into the No. 28 slot in mock drafts everywhere. I admit to knowing very little about this player a month ago. I watched a few Broncos games last season, and while I do remember hearing his name mentioned, he never stood out. Fearing that perhaps I wasn’t paying close enough attention, I decided to see what all the fuss was about. So over the past few weeks I’ve taken a much closer look at the young man who is stealing the hearts of draftniks everywhere.

Let me first say that I now fully understand why so many Packers fans – not to mention members of the local media – are falling in love with McClellin. On first glance, he looks just like a freshly coiffed Clay Matthews. Not only are both men white – a relative rarity for the position – but they share a similar build and passion for the game. Like the three-time Pro Bowler, McClellin is a relentless and tenacious worker. He simply won’t give up on a play. And while he’s not nearly as athletic as CMIII, he appears to have above-average movement skills. He’s relatively light on his feet and displays fine body control. All in all, I was pretty impressed by what I saw. Just not impressed enough to join the Everybody Loves Shea fan club.

While McClellin put up solid numbers in college, he didn’t dominate against subpar competition. I saw him taken out of plays by too many offensive linemen who’ll be wearing suits and ties at their next jobs. The 22-year-old needs to get stronger. He lacks lower body strength and explosion. He also catches too much contact – often trying to run around blocks or pull and jerk to disengage. And while spending time in the weight room and with outside linebackers coach Kevin Greene would obviously make a difference, I’m just not convinced that McClellin has the physical skills needed to be an upper-echelon starter in the NFL. And that’s what every GM wants from his first-round pick.

Would taking McClellin at 28 be a mistake? Not really, but in a draft that is deep in defensive linemen and outside linebackers, I just think there will be better options available at the end of round one. More importantly, there will be outside linebackers available in the second round who could be every bit as good – if not better – than McClellin. West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin, Utah State’s Bobby Wagner, Marshall’s Vinny Curry and Oklahoma’s Ronnell Lewis all have the potential to be quality starters in the National Football League, and none of those four players is going to hear his name called by Commissioner Roger Goodell. They’ll have to wait until day two to find out which cities they’ll soon be calling home. The feeling here is that McClellin should have to wait just as long to find out his destiny.

Apr 132012
 
Plenty of depth at defensive tackle and outside linebacker

Plenty of depth at defensive tackle and outside linebacker

Predicting exactly which player general manager Ted Thompson will select in the first round is next to impossible, but his distinctive pattern after seven drafts makes it easier to at least narrow down the field of potential candidates. All seven of his previous first-round picks have played in either the Pac-12 (quarterback Aaron Rodgers and outside linebacker Clay Matthews), the Big Ten (linebacker A.J. Hawk and offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga), the SEC (defensive lineman Justin Harrell and offensive tackle Derek Sherrod) or the ACC (nose tackle B.J. Raji). Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but I seriously doubt it.

While Thompson has no problem choosing players from smaller conferences after round one, he sticks with the big boys when it comes to the money pick. Need is the other thing that should narrow down the field of candidates. Thompson always talks about taking the best available player regardless of position, but let’s be honest, he’ll be taking the best available defensive player regardless of position this year. He has no choice considering just how awful things were on that side of the ball in 2011.

OK, so let’s immediately exclude defensive players from major conferences that almost certainly won’t be around at 28. That list includes Michael Brockers, Fletcher Cox, Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram, Courtney Upshaw, Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick, Morris Claiborne and Mark Barron.Who might still be on the board? Jerel Worthy, Brandon Thompson, Devon Still, Dont’a Hightower, Luke Kuechly, Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry and Andre Branch. Notice that Dontari Poe, Kendall Reyes and Shea McClellin didn’t make either list because of where they played.

Some of the players I’ve listed as being available won’t be, but it’s a starting point. I’m going to cross out Kuechly because the Packers are fairly deep at inside linebacker. Ditto Hightower, even though he might be versatile enough to play on the outside in a 3-4 scheme. I’ll get rid of Thompson and Branch because they played at Clemson, and there are more busts at that school than there are at Hooters. Perry and Mercilus scare me a bit because they’re both projections from defensive end to outside linebacker. That increases the risk factor exponentially. And then there were two.

Flip a coin. Worthy has more natural talent than Still, but he was inconsistent in college and he’s a bit short for a 3-4 end. Still isn’t as explosive as Worthy, but he’s built for the position. He has ideal size (6’5″, 303) and is rock solid against the run. And while he probably won’t get 10 sacks, he’ll be a disruptive inside rusher. He’s also a pretty safe pick. After battling injuries as a freshman and sophomore, he’s been durable and dependable for the past two seasons. Adding Still would give coordinator Dom Capers the defensive end he desperately needs. In the loss to the Giants, one starter was a natural nose tackle and the other was a player who had already been cut once by the Packers.

Still is a very solid player, but he won’t dramatically improve the pass rush. That means the next pick should be someone who can provide pressure opposite Clay Matthews. After studying a handful of the second-tier outside linebackers, one player stood out from the rest when it came to getting after the quarterback. West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin isn’t going to be the total package right away, but he doesn’t have to be. One of the returning vets should be able to hold his own on early downs, and then Capers can turn Irvin loose in the nickel package. He’s extremely quick off the edge and he’s dangerous on inside stunts where his explosiveness is usually too much for a guard to handle.

1st round pickDEVON STILL

2nd round pick: BRUCE IRVIN